瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may face a situation where supply gradually decreases while demand remains stable. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is also advised to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2] - The cast aluminum market may experience a situation of converging supply and stable demand, with relatively high industry inventory. Similar to the above, light - position oscillating trading is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,910 yuan/ton with no change; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,806 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,778.50 US dollars/ton, down 17.50 US dollars. The main - to - second - consecutive contract spreads for Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum all changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - Positions and Inventories: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum changed, with Shanghai aluminum and alumina positions increasing and cast aluminum positions decreasing. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 4,100 tons to 491,225 tons, while the alumina total inventory increased by 33,021 tons to 239,607 tons [2] - Other Indicators: The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.53, up 0.05. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum decreased by 2,258 hands to 15,505 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, alumina spot in Shanghai Non - ferrous, and other products changed, with some prices decreasing and some remaining unchanged [2] - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum, electrolytic aluminum, and alumina all weakened [2] - Premiums and Discounts: The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium and discount, and LME aluminum premium and discount also changed, with the former increasing by 20 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton and the latter decreasing by 4.64 US dollars/ton to 12.88 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Utilization: Alumina production increased by 35.98 million tons to 792.47 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.53 percentage points to 88.27%. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part increased by 3.73 million tons to 725.80 million tons [2] - Import and Export: The export volume of alumina increased by 7 million tons to 25 million tons, while the import volume decreased by 3.44 million tons to 6 million tons. The import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 17,195.97 tons to 155,414.40 tons, and the export volume increased by 15.31 tons to 68.54 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and Capacity: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 4,523.20 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [2] - Import and Export: The import and export volumes of primary aluminum both increased, while the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Production: The production of aluminum alloy and automobiles increased, while the national real - estate prosperity index decreased [2] - Volatility: The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased, while the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money increased slightly [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Chinese central bank and other departments created two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, injecting billions of yuan into the market and boosting investor confidence [2] - The US President sent a signal to ease trade tensions, and the Trump administration relaxed some tariff policies [2] - A video call was held between Chinese and US economic and trade representatives, and they agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [2]