银河期货油脂日报-20251020

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for the oil and fat market is that the futures prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions on the 05 contract when the prices have pulled back significantly. [5][6][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8298, up 42; palm oil 9318, up 10; and rapeseed oil 9918, up 57. The basis of each variety showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. [3] - Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 196, 22, and 370 respectively, all showing a decline. [3] - Cross - Variety Spread: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (1020), up 32; the OI - Y spread was 1620, up 15; and the OI - P spread was 600, up 47. The oil - meal ratio was 2.87, down 0.01. [3] - Import Profit: The import profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was (144), and that of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (941). [3] - Weekly Commercial Inventory: In the 41st week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 126.5, 54.8, and 57.1 million tons respectively. Compared with last week and the same period last year, the inventories of each variety changed to different extents. [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,044,784 tons, a 3.4% increase from the same period last month. [5] - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a 0.83% decrease from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and the basis is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and one can consider lightly testing long positions on the 05 contract when the price pulls back. [5] - Soybean Oil: As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 126.51 million tons, a 1.31% increase from last week. The supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. One can consider lightly testing long positions on the 05 contract when the price pulls back. [6] - Rapeseed Oil: As of October 10, 2025, the coastal inventory was 57.1 million tons, a decrease from last week. The import profit inversion has widened, and the basis is stable. The inventory reduction trend is expected to continue, and attention should be paid to the purchase and policy changes. [9] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the oil and fat futures prices will fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions when the prices have pulled back significantly. [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. [11] - Options: Wait and see. [11] 3.4 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of various oils, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads, etc., from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND. [14][17]