银河期货粕类日报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply pressure in the soybean market remains significant, and the price center of the soybean system is expected to shift downward. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets are in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, and the upward space for prices is limited. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for unilateral trading and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads for arbitrage. For options, sell a wide - straddle structure [3][7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The U.S. soybean futures showed an obvious rebound due to macro - level improvement. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures also rebounded, with soybean meal being less affected by market information and rapeseed meal showing a phased rebound after a deep decline. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal showed a rebound, while those of rapeseed meal had limited changes. Spot supply was relatively small, and transactions were mainly based on basis [2]. Fundamental Analysis International Market - For U.S. soybeans, the carry - over stock of the old crop increased slightly, and the new crop supply increased slightly. The price decline space is limited, but it may face downward pressure if exports are not boosted. South American old - crop soybeans are in a state of loose supply and demand, and Brazilian farmers' slow selling progress may put pressure on prices. The international soybean meal supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase in soybean crushing volume in major producing areas and only a slight increase in imports in major importing countries [3]. Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal supply pressure has improved but remains relatively loose. As of October 17, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.1662 million tons, the开机率 was 59.59%, the soybean inventory was 7.687 million tons (up 0.38% from last week and 27.49% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 0.9762 million tons (down 9.54% from last week and up 4.16% year - on - year). The rapeseed meal demand has weakened, the开机率 has decreased, and the supply pressure still exists. As of the week of October 17, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal oil mills was 12,000 tons, the开机率 was 3.2%, the rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons (down 12,000 tons from last week), and the rapeseed meal inventory was 7,800 tons (down 3,700 tons from last week) [7]. Macro - economic Analysis - Reports indicate that Sino - U.S. communication has reduced concerns about trade conflicts, but the Madrid negotiations did not provide clear information on soybeans. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty, and the upward space for the domestic soybean meal futures is limited as China's long - term demand for U.S. soybeans decreases [8]. Logical Analysis - The market showed a slight rebound with limited changes. New negative factors are scarce after previous negative factors were fully reflected. The overall supply pressure is significant due to the progress of U.S. soybean harvesting and the increase in Brazilian new - crop planting area, so the upward space for the futures is limited. The domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose, and the inventory is high. The rapeseed meal inventory is low, but demand is average, and prices may face pressure. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal are significantly affected by the macro - economy, while those of rapeseed meal are affected by supply uncertainty and may face downward pressure [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: M11 - 1 positive spreads. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle structure [10][11].