银河期货铁合金日报-20251020

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon iron (SF) main contract closed at 5436, up 0.11%, with an increase of 5090 in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5738, up 0.35%, with a decrease of 12123 in positions [6]. - For silicon iron, on the 20th, the spot price was stable. The supply is still at a high level, while the demand faces pressure due to the poor performance of macro - data in September, high steel inventories, and the expected steel mill maintenance. However, its low valuation provides some support, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - For manganese silicon, on the 20th, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and manganese silicon spot prices were also stable with a slight increase. The supply is at a high level, and the demand has a downward risk due to poor macro - data and high steel inventories. It is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom, restricted by demand but supported by valuation and low manganese ore inventories [6]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to expect bottom - range fluctuations as the demand expectation remains weak, but the valuation and cost side provide support; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Futures Data: The SF main contract closed at 5436, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 30, a trading volume of 134,692 (down 441), and an open interest of 203,512 (up 5090). The SM main contract closed at 5738, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of - 8, a trading volume of 152,986 (down 8580), and an open interest of 377,834 (down 12123) [3]. - Spot Data: For silicon iron, the spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with some minor changes in weekly prices. For manganese silicon, some regional spot prices rose by 20 yuan/ton, and the manganese ore in Tianjin Port semi - carbonate rose by 0.2 yuan/ton degree [3][6]. - Basis/Spread Data: The basis and spread data of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, the SF - SM spread was - 302, with a daily change of - 14 and a weekly change of 38 [3]. - Raw Material Data: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of different types had minor daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in different regions were stable [3]. Market Judgement - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to have bottom - range fluctuations; arbitrage is to wait and see; options are to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. - Important Information: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron output was 66.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; steel output was 124.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. From January to September, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%, etc. [8] Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the ferroalloy main contract trend review, the sf - sm spread on the disk, the monthly spreads of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the production costs and profits of silicon iron and manganese silicon, and the ferroalloy electricity prices [12][16][20]