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东南亚、中亚垃圾焚烧出海正当时
Changjiang Securities·2025-10-20 10:15

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - The demand for waste incineration in Southeast Asia and Central Asia is urgent, driven by rapid urbanization and rising consumer spending, leading to a significant increase in municipal solid waste generation [6][17]. - Most Southeast Asian countries have a waste incineration treatment ratio below 10%, while Central Asia is even more lagging, with nearly 100% reliance on landfill disposal as of the end of 2024 [6][19]. - Chinese companies have established a competitive advantage in overseas waste incineration projects due to their technological strength and comprehensive solution capabilities, with over ten new contracts signed in 2023, totaling nearly 27,000 tons/day of capacity [7][28]. - The waste incineration sector is characterized by high certainty and steady growth, making it a premium absolute return sector [8][35]. Summary by Sections Waste Incineration Demand in "Belt and Road" Countries - The increase in waste generation is significant, with cities like Ho Chi Minh City producing about 9,700 tons of waste daily, of which only 33% is treated through incineration and composting [6][21]. - Indonesia faces severe waste management challenges, with over 35% of waste unprocessed and directly entering waterways, prompting government plans for incineration plants in 30 cities [6][21]. Economic Conditions Favoring Incineration Technology - By 2024, the GDP per capita in major Southeast Asian countries is projected to be between $4,000 and $10,000, indicating readiness for the adoption of incineration technology [6][24]. - Countries like Thailand and Malaysia have GDPs of $7,345 and approximately $11,867, respectively, which are comparable to China's GDP levels when it began promoting waste incineration [6][24]. Active Project Bidding and High Participation of Chinese Companies - The trend of regular and large-scale project bidding in Southeast Asia and Central Asia is evident, with Chinese companies dominating the competitive landscape [7][28]. - In 2023, Chinese firms signed contracts for waste incineration projects with a combined capacity of nearly 27,000 tons/day, primarily in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan [7][28]. Growth Potential and Investment Strategy - Southeast Asia is expected to remain a core market, with project bidding continuing to increase, while Central Asia is in the early stages of development [8][35]. - The integration of waste incineration with new business models such as energy storage and digital capabilities is anticipated to create additional value-added services in overseas environmental projects [8][35]. Recommended Industry Leaders - Key industry leaders recommended include Huanlan Environment, China Everbright, Weiming Environmental, Yongxing Co., Green Power, Junxin Co., Sanfeng Environment, Xirong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [8][36].