Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is generally optimistic about copper prices due to the end of the LME Week event, the acceleration of precious metals hitting new highs, and the increasing risk of supply losses in major copper mines. The gold-copper ratio has reached its highest level since 1986, indicating a high enthusiasm for multi-allocation of financial attributes. The domestic copper market is in a state of "weak supply and demand" under high copper prices. The option combination strategy recommended last week should continue to be held [2]. - The short-term Shanghai aluminum is oscillating to test the resistance of the previous high. The cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price. The alumina is mainly in a weak operation due to the obvious supply surplus [3]. - The zinc ingot supply exceeds demand, and the Shanghai zinc is under pressure. However, it still has strong support at around 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc is still significantly pressured at the integer level of 3,000 US dollars. The export of zinc ingots is still the general direction [4]. - The Shanghai nickel is in a narrow range, and the market trading is average. The downstream demand recovery is limited during the consumption peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded. The overall confidence in the spot market is weak [7]. - The domestic and foreign tin prices closed down last week. The global tin market supply is gradually stabilizing, and the trading center is expected to have room for further decline [8]. - The lithium carbonate price opened higher and then oscillated, and the market trading recovered. The total market inventory decreased, and the downstream took the opportunity to take delivery after the price dropped rapidly [9]. - The industrial silicon recovered part of the intraday increase. The Xinjiang operating rate reached the highest point of the year, and the downstream demand was basically stable. The short-term disk is expected to maintain oscillation [10]. - The polysilicon futures decreased significantly in positions and fell back. The spot price remained stable. The fundamentals lack positive support, and the disk fluctuation is mainly driven by expectations [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, domestic and foreign copper prices fluctuated widely. The gold-copper ratio reached its highest level since 1986, and the financial attribute multi-allocation enthusiasm was high. The domestic copper market was in a state of "weak supply and demand" under high copper prices. The copper social inventory continued to rise, and the consumption performance was weaker than the same period last year. The option combination strategy recommended last week should continue to be held [2]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, and the spot premium in East China was 10 yuan. Since August, the apparent consumption of the aluminum market has been basically flat year-on-year. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 0.2 tons compared with last Thursday, and the aluminum rod was basically flat. The cast aluminum alloy continued to follow the aluminum price. The alumina operating capacity was at a historical high, and the industry inventory continued to rise. The supply surplus was obvious, and the spot index continued to decline [3]. Zinc - On Monday, the SMM zinc social inventory increased to 165,300 tons, further confirming the oversupply of zinc ingots. The short-term spot export window opened, but the actual export volume was limited. The Shanghai zinc was under pressure and fell with heavy volume. However, it still had strong support at around 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc was still significantly pressured at the integer level of 3,000 US dollars. The export of zinc ingots was still the general direction [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was average. The downstream demand recovery was limited during the consumption peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded. The overall confidence in the spot market was weak. The nickel iron price was 941 yuan per nickel point, and the support brought by the upstream price rebound was weakening [7]. Tin - Last week, domestic and foreign tin prices closed down. The global tin market supply was gradually stabilizing, and the trading center was expected to have room for further decline. The previous short positions should be held, and the call option with an exercise price of 300,000 for the 2511 contract could be sold to close the position. The trading range of Shanghai tin was expected to move down to 273,000 - 275,000 yuan [8]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate price opened higher and then oscillated, and the market trading recovered. The total market inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 132,700 tons. The downstream took the opportunity to take delivery after the price dropped rapidly, and the traders increased their inventory by 350 tons to 41,000 tons. Technically, the lithium carbonate futures price oscillated and waited for clarity [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon recovered part of the intraday increase. The Xinjiang operating rate reached the highest point of the year, and the downstream demand was basically stable. The weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was increasing marginally, and the spot price was slightly pressured. After the electricity price increased in November, the production reduction in the southwest was certain. The short-term disk was expected to maintain oscillation [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures decreased significantly in positions and fell back, closing at 50,340 yuan/ton, mainly due to the significant cooling of policy expectations. The spot price remained stable. In October, the production reduction was less than expected, and the output was expected to continue to increase month-on-month. The risk of inventory accumulation continued under high inventory. The fundamentals lacked positive support, and the disk fluctuation was mainly driven by expectations [11].
有色金属日报-20251020
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-20 10:57