如何解读三季度经济数据?：2025年三季度经济数据点评

GDP and Economic Growth - Q3 2025 GDP growth rate reached 4.8%, aligning with market expectations, while the cumulative growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%[3] - Q3 GDP showed a slight increase in quarter-on-quarter growth to 1.1%, compared to 1.0% in Q2[4] - Export growth improved from 6.1% in Q2 to 6.6% in Q3, driven by strong demand from non-US regions[5] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in September was 3.0%, below the expected 3.1% and down from 3.4% in August[8] - The "trade-in" policy's effectiveness is diminishing, impacting consumer spending, particularly in home appliances and office supplies[9] - Restaurant consumption growth fell to 0.9% in September, indicating a decline in outdoor dining demand post-summer[11] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 6.1% in Q3, down from 2.1% in Q2[5] - Manufacturing investment continued to experience negative growth, with a decline of 1.9% in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decrease[22] - Infrastructure investment showed a slight recovery, with narrow declines in September, indicating potential stabilization due to upcoming fiscal policies[23] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area declined by 11.9% year-on-year in September, while sales revenue fell by 12.4%, though the rate of decline is slowing[28] - New construction and completion areas showed signs of recovery, with completion growth turning positive for the first time since 2024[29] Risks and Outlook - The economic outlook for Q4 remains cautious due to high base effects from last year and potential external economic downturns[32] - Continued fiscal policy support is expected to stabilize infrastructure investment, but the effectiveness of consumer policies remains uncertain[23]