Wanlian Securities·2025-10-20 10:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the health supplement industry, indicating a sustained growth trend in the medium to long term [2][3]. Core Insights - The health supplement market in China is projected to grow from CNY 321.37 billion in 2020 to CNY 415.03 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.60%, making it the second-largest market globally after the United States [2][3]. - Per capita consumption in China is approximately one-fifth of that in mature markets like Australia, South Korea, and the United States, indicating significant growth potential [3][20]. - The penetration rate among the elderly population (aged 65 and above) in China is only 23.04%, compared to 73.04% in the U.S., suggesting a 2-3 times growth opportunity [3][20]. - The industry is characterized by a diverse range of upstream raw materials, with concentrated production capacity in certain segments, while downstream companies exhibit relatively strong profitability and are accelerating international expansion [3][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Development and Outlook - The health supplement industry in China is expected to maintain a growth trend, with market size projected to reach CNY 447.3 billion by 2029 [16][20]. - The dual-track registration and filing system for health supplements has been implemented, easing industry entry barriers [16][17]. Industry Chain - Upstream: The variety of raw materials includes vitamins, minerals, amino acids, extracts, and probiotics, with some production concentrated among a few key players [24]. - Downstream: Companies often overlap in production and brand marketing, with low sensitivity to cost changes, allowing them to enjoy high added value through premium pricing [3][24][31]. Sales Channels - E-commerce is the primary sales channel, expected to account for 43.9% of sales by 2024, while traditional channels face challenges [4][24]. Key Companies - Tongrentang: A leading brand in the VDS segment, focusing on scientific nutrition and maintaining a market share above the industry average [5][32]. - Jindaiwei: A company with a full industry chain layout, emphasizing core raw material advantages and international brand localization [9][32]. - Xianle Health: A CDMO leader with multi-formulation development capabilities, covering markets in China, the U.S., and Europe [9][32].