ZZPZH(SH:600436) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-10-20 10:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but there is an expectation for a gradual improvement starting from Q4 2025 [1] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 7.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.93%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.129 billion yuan, down 20.74% year-on-year [5] - The growth of liver disease medication is expected to improve slowly from Q4 2025 due to an increase in the number of retail outlets and a decrease in the price of key raw materials [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 10,787.86 million yuan, 9,810.49 million yuan, 10,618.65 million yuan, and 11,311.31 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.25%, -9.06%, 8.24%, and 6.52% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2,977 million yuan, 2,529.36 million yuan, 2,679.25 million yuan, and 2,880.96 million yuan for the same years, reflecting a year-on-year change of 6.42%, -15.04%, 5.93%, and 7.53% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are estimated at 4.93 yuan, 4.19 yuan, 4.44 yuan, and 4.78 yuan respectively [5] Market Position and Outlook - The company has a strong brand and unique product offerings, which provide high barriers to entry and less impact from centralized procurement [5] - The number of retail outlets for the company's products increased significantly in September 2025, which is expected to drive sales in Q4 2025 [5] - The gross margin for liver disease medication is anticipated to improve as the price of natural raw materials decreases [5]