贵金属策略报告-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals declined from high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 1.63% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing down 3.99%. [1] - In the short - term, regarding safe - haven aspects, there may be a meeting between China and the US, easing trade - war risks. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, employment is weakening, and inflation is moderate. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts is starting to materialize. [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump said that imposing a 100% tariff on China is unsustainable. The US Treasury Secretary expects China and the US to meet in Malaysia soon to prevent tariff escalation. [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the next few months. Fed Governor Waller warned that US employment growth may have turned negative in the past few months. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has hardly changed recently, but signs of cooling consumption are emerging. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in September, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. Currently, the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of around 90%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate weakly in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits. [2] - Data Summary: - International prices: Comex gold's main - contract closing price is $4224.90 per ounce, up 1.57% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week; London gold is $4204.60 per ounce, up 1.90% from the previous day and 4.07% from the previous week. [2] - Domestic prices: The closing price of Shanghai gold's main contract is 970.32 yuan per gram, down 2.95% from the previous day and up 4.61% from the previous week; the closing price of gold T + D is 973.70 yuan per gram, down 2.23% from the previous day and up 5.10% from the previous week. [2] - Basis, spreads, and ratios: The difference between Shanghai gold's main contract and London gold is 5.71 yuan per gram, down 87% from the previous day and down 215% from the previous week; the gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) is 77.72, down 0.22% from the previous day and down 2.35% from the previous week. [2] - Positions and inventories: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots; Shanghai gold's main - contract positions are 207,916 lots, down 6.43% from the previous day and down 13.37% from the previous week; gold T + D positions are 258,232 lots, up 1.27% from the previous day and up 12.76% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory is 8,598 tons; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.08% from the previous week. [2] 3.2 Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits. [5] - Data Summary: - International prices: Comex silver's main - contract closing price is $50.63 per ounce, down 5.25% from the previous day and up 6.55% from the previous week; London silver is $54.10 per ounce, up 2.04% from the previous day and up 6.58% from the previous week. [5] - Domestic prices: The closing price of Shanghai silver's main contract is 11,742 yuan per kilogram, down 4.14% from the previous day and up 1.83% from the previous week; the closing price of silver T + D is 11,779 yuan per kilogram, down 3.67% from the previous day and up 2.85% from the previous week. [5] - Basis and spreads: The difference between Shanghai silver's main contract and London silver is - 653.17 yuan per gram, down 744.93% from the previous day and up 479.09% from the previous week; the basis of Shanghai silver's main contract is 37 yuan per kilogram. [5] - Positions and inventories: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots; Shanghai silver's main - contract positions are 6,489,945 lots, down 8.17% from the previous day and down 12.70% from the previous week; silver T + D positions are 3,830,738 lots, up 5.73% from the previous day and up 20.97% from the previous week. The total visible inventory is 42,538 tons, down 0.58% from the previous day and down 1.32% from the previous week. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) is 4.15%, and the Fed's total assets are $6,647.249 billion, up 0.00% from the previous number. [7] - Economic data: The year - on - year growth rate of M2 is 4.77%, the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury is 2.32%, the US dollar index is 98.55, the yield spread between 3 - month and 10 - year US Treasuries is 0.54, and the yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries is - 0.02. [7][10] - Inflation data: The year - on - year CPI is 2.90%, the core CPI year - on - year is 3.10%, and the PCE price index year - on - year is 2.74%. [10] - Other data: The NAHB housing - market index is 37.00, up 15.63% from the previous number; new - home sales are 660,000 units, up 15.15% from the previous number; the retail - sales year - on - year growth rate is 3.76%. [10] - Central - bank gold reserves: China's central - bank gold reserve is 2,303.52 tons, up 0.14% from the previous number; the US's is 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's is 36,268.07 tons, unchanged. [11] - Other indicators: The geopolitical - risk index is 259.24, the VIX index is 20.40, the CRB commodity index is 293.35, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1263. [11] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate range at different meetings from October 2025 to September 2027 are presented in a probability table, showing the changing probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at each meeting. [12]