国投期货统计局三季度生猪数据点评

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of pig inventory, pig slaughter volume, and pork production further expanded compared to the first half of the year, leading to supply - side pressure and a continuous decline in pig prices to historical lows [14]. - The pig production capacity cycle in China has likely peaked, with the farrowing sow inventory peaking in August 2025 and declining in September. According to the theoretical calculation of pig slaughter 10 months after farrowing sow inventory, the pig slaughter volume is expected to peak around June next year, and the supply pressure will remain high [14][15]. - The low pig price in October is likely the first emotional bottom - building. Considering the continuous supply pressure and the off - season of demand, there is a high probability of a second bottom - building in pig prices in the first half of next year [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Inventory - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12.33 million heads (2.9%). It is expected to continue growing in the fourth quarter due to the previous growth of farrowing sow inventory [6][7]. Farrowing Sow Inventory - At the end of September, the farrowing sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 90,000 heads (0.2%). The decline indicates that the industry has entered a production capacity reduction cycle due to losses in piglet sales and pig fattening caused by low pig prices [3]. Pig Slaughter Volume - In the first three quarters, the national pig slaughter volume was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads (1.8%), with the growth rate 1.2 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year and continuous growth for three quarters. In the third quarter, the pig slaughter volume was 163.73 million heads, compared with 156.35 million heads in the same period last year [9]. Pork Production - In the first three quarters, the pork production was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons (3.0%), reaching the highest level in the past 10 years. The increase is due to the 1.8% year - on - year increase in pig slaughter volume and the higher average pig slaughter weight than the previous year (128.25 kg as of October 16 this year compared to 126.34 kg last year) [11][12].