近期宏观热点对商品市场的影响

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current futures market is at a stage of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Precious metals have prominent allocation value. For non - ferrous metals, pay attention to the long - position layout opportunities for copper after a pullback. The black - metal sector is under pressure, and its rebound depends on domestic policies. The energy - chemical sector is suppressed by crude oil and is a short - term short - allocation choice. Some agricultural products like sugar have independent long - position opportunities [2]. - Investors should follow the idea of "macro determines the direction, industry determines the variety", focus on key events such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting in late October, policy settings of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and adjust positions flexibly while strictly managing risks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Summary of Core Macro Hotspots during the National Day Holiday (1) International Macro: Loose Expectations and Geopolitical Risks - US economic data is weak, with a 32,000 decrease in September ADP employment and a drop in ISM services PMI. The probability of a Fed rate cut in October has risen to 99%, and the expected cumulative rate - cut range this year is 50 - 75 basis points. The US government shutdown has disrupted data release and increased market volatility. OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but there are concerns about long - term supply surpluses. Geopolitical risks are structurally differentiated, with the Middle East situation easing and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continuing. Trade protectionism is on the rise, with the EU and the US introducing tariff - increasing measures [6][7][9][10][11]. (2) Domestic Macro: Policy Expectations and Structural Recovery of Domestic Demand - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is expected to set mid - to long - term policy frameworks. Industrial policies are coordinated, with plans for the steel and building materials industries. Economic data shows structural characteristics, with slow manufacturing recovery and differentiated holiday consumption. Financial data has improved marginally, and there are changes in foreign trade policies and domestic industrial adjustment [13][15][16][17]. 2. Outlook for Each Sector (1) Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - Precious metals are strong due to factors like the US government shutdown, weak economic data, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Copper has long - term support but faces short - term consumption suppression. Aluminum is relatively weak, and tin's price is affected by supply and consumption [21][22][23]. (2) Black Metals Sector - Steel has high inventory and weak demand, and its price depends on policy signals. Iron ore has a loose supply - demand pattern, and coking coal and coke are in a negative feedback loop in the industrial chain [24][25][27]. (3) Energy Sector - Crude oil is in a range - bound state with multiple factors at play, and natural gas is expected to be strong due to demand growth and supply concerns [28][29][30]. (4) Chemical Sector - Crude - oil - related products are expected to be weak, and glass is strong due to supply contraction while纯碱 is under pressure [30][31]. (5) Agricultural Products Sector - There are structural opportunities in oilseeds, policy support in grains, differentiated trends in soft commodities, and bottom - bound oscillations in livestock and eggs [32][33][35]. 3. Conclusions and Suggestions - The futures market is in a period of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Different sectors have different characteristics, and investors should focus on key events, adjust positions flexibly, and manage risks [37].