华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel Products: Steel prices are expected to operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. - Coking Coal and Coke: In the short term, the supply of coking coal and coke increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. - Ferroalloys: The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon remains loose, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the closing prices of most futures and spot varieties in the black industry chain changed. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased from 3103 to 3037 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13%; the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3285 to 3204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. However, the J2601 contract of coke increased from 1666.5 to 1676 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - Logic: The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased. The steel products market oscillated and declined last week, and the downstream weakness improved limitedly. The Sino - US trade friction affected market sentiment, and important domestic meetings and Sino - US economic and trade consultations are worth noting [9]. - Viewpoint: Low - level operation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - Logic: The macro - level meeting is expected to focus on new - quality productivity and consumption. The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly, the arrival volume will return to the median level, the domestic demand decreased but remained high, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [10]. - Viewpoint: The price will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Logic: The futures prices of coking coal and coke first declined and then rose last week, affected by Sino - US trade policies and anti - involution expectations. The spot market was stable and slightly strong, and some coke enterprises planned a second price increase. The coal mine output increased, the imported coal volume increased monthly, the coke enterprise profit contracted, and the steel mill profit was in deficit [11]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, the supply increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas, the US government shutdown affected economic data and Fed policy decisions. Domestically, the demand improvement expectation was weak. The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon was relatively loose, the demand decreased, the inventory increased, and the cost support was stable [12]. - Viewpoint: The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - Rebar: The output last week was 201.16 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24 tons; the apparent demand was 219.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 73.74 tons. The total inventory was 641.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.59 tons [14][21]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The output last week was 321.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45 tons; the apparent demand was 315.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.58 tons. The total inventory was 419.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.29 tons [24][29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Port Inventory: The total import ore port inventory (45 ports) last week was 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons [41]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises last week was 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons [48]. - Global Shipment: The global total shipment last week was 3207.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Coke Inventory: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 891.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.84 tons [74]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2599.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87.92 tons [82]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Spot Price: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port last week was 33.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 yuan [106]. - Output: The silicon - manganese output of 187 independent enterprises last week was 208810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4585 tons [110]. - Demand: The demand for silicon - manganese of five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 960 tons [114]. - Inventory: The silicon - manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises on October 17 was 262500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20000 tons [117].