Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 18. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand. The raw coal price is firm, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is also firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price of imports is stable, the import parity spread has widened. Iranian gas has not been restricted, and most Iranian plants are operating normally except Kimiya. The non - Iranian operating rate has increased, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference has continued to narrow, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran loaded 600,000 tons in September. Affected by sanctions, the price difference between Iranian and non - Iranian sources has widened rapidly, and non - Iranian supplies have increased. Some Iranian plants are reported to have suspended loading, and US dollar traders are taking profits at high prices. The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined, while the MTO device operating rate has rebounded. In terms of inventory, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, with the increase in the international device operating rate, the resumption of some Iranian devices, and the increase in daily output to around 35,000 tons, imports are gradually recovering. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall transaction is light, and the spot basis is stable. The MTO demand is stable, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. Recently, in the peak season of coal demand, the coal price has rebounded, and the domestic supply is loose. The MTO operating rate in the inland is stable, and the CTO external procurement loss is close to the previous low. The Middle East situation is unclear, and the crude oil is oscillating weakly. However, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is strengthening, and domestic commodities are oscillating widely, which has a greater impact on methanol futures. With the import interference slightly subsiding, methanol will mainly oscillate weakly under the background of high inventory. The trading strategy is to short at high levels but not chase short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; and sell call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the methanol market from aspects of raw coal, supply, import, demand, and inventory. It concludes that methanol will mainly oscillate weakly and provides trading strategies including unilateral shorting at high levels without chasing short positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - Supply - Domestic: As of October 16, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.55%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.74 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 85.57%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in the country was 68.75%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points from last week [5] - Supply - International: From October 11 - 17, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol output was 1,075,859 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 73.75%. Iranian Kimiya shut down again, the Brunei device restarted in late September, a South American device restarted in the first ten - day period, and a Norwegian device was under maintenance [5] - Supply - Import: As of October 15, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 283,800 tons, including 260,500 tons of foreign vessels (202,700 tons of visible and 57,800 tons of non - visible, with 105,700 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 23,300 tons of domestic vessels (3,500 tons of non - visible in Jiangsu and 19,800 tons in Guangdong) [5] - Demand - MTO: As of October 16, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 88.08%, the same as last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 94.21%, remaining stable and at a high level [5] - Demand - Traditional: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 18.88%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 72.52%, slightly decreasing. The formaldehyde operating rate was 40.88% [5] - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 63,000 tons, an increase of 44,300 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 236.90% [5] - Inventory - Enterprise: The production enterprise inventory was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 228,900 tons, an increase of 113,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 98.64% [5] - Inventory - Port: As of October 15, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1.4914 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 83,500 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 31,700 tons [5] - Valuation: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi was around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference was 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis weakened [5] 3. Spot Price - The spot price of Taicang was 2260 yuan/ton (- 2), and the northern line price was 2040 yuan/ton (- 60) [8]
进口扰动，甲醇震荡为主
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-20 11:18