Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9][11]. Core Views - The company is positioned as the world's largest oil tanker owner, with a robust fleet structure that allows it to capitalize on market cycles. The demand for oil transportation is expected to increase due to OPEC+ production boosts, while supply constraints are anticipated to maintain freight rate elasticity [9][10]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 24.485 billion, 26.725 billion, and 27.233 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.84%, 9.14%, and 1.90% respectively [8][10]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be 4.462 billion, 5.803 billion, and 5.757 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 10.51%, 30.05%, and -0.80% [8][10]. - The company’s gross profit is expected to be 6.660 billion, 8.336 billion, and 8.168 billion RMB, with gross margins of 27.2%, 31.2%, and 30.0% respectively [10]. Company Overview - The company controls a fleet of 158 vessels, including 54 VLCCs, making it the largest in the world. The fleet's structure provides significant operational flexibility and profit elasticity [19][23]. - The company has a strong focus on dividend distribution, maintaining a payout ratio around 50% since 2022, with a current dividend yield close to 7% [37][39]. Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for oil transportation is expected to be bolstered by OPEC+ production increases, with a projected supply increase of 214,000 to 411,000 barrels per day [9][46]. - The supply side is characterized by strong constraints, with the VLCC fleet not experiencing significant capacity scrapping for nearly 20 years, leading to a projected effective fleet growth rate of -0.3% to 1.8% from 2026 to 2027 [9][10][13]. Valuation - The company's reset cost is estimated at 55.43 billion RMB, with a current market value to reset cost ratio of 0.73, indicating potential for price appreciation [11][10]. - If benchmarked against comparable companies, the potential upside is estimated at 58%, with scenarios predicting price increases of 65% to 200% under various assumptions regarding ship prices [11][10].
中远海能（01138）：油运龙头标的，基本面迎中长期改善