能源日报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, also in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆, in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. Crude oil may enter a weakly oscillating phase. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show different supply - demand characteristics in the short and medium terms. Asphalt maintains a tight balance, and liquefied petroleum gas has certain inventory and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation speed has accelerated further, with a 1.5% increase in inventory since the fourth quarter. The mid - term trend of the crude oil market is still under pressure, but the short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may turn to a weakly oscillating state [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term fuel oil prices follow the cost side with a weakly oscillating downward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term price support but faces increasing supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil maintains a supply - demand weak situation. Strategies include shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract oscillates narrowly. The weekly asphalt operating rate declines, demand is weaker than expected in October, and the overall commercial inventory decreases slightly. The asphalt market maintains a tight balance and is pressured by the weak cost side [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract continues to oscillate narrowly, with the far - month contract under pressure. Supply increases slightly this week, chemical demand grows, and inventory at refineries and ports decreases. The basis narrows to near the flat - water position [4]