软商品日报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor operability, with a wait - and - see approach [1] - Timber: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading - floor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Cotton prices are expected to be affected by supply and demand, sugar prices are likely to remain weak, apple prices are influenced by factors such as production and storage, and natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets are affected by supply, demand, and inventory [2][3][4][6] - For most commodities, it is recommended to wait and see for now, while for timber, a bullish trading strategy is maintained [2][4][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose significantly, breaking through the recent trading range. The cost of new cotton is generally stable, with the mainstream price at 6.1 - 6.2 yuan/kg and the higher price at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As of October 15, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons, an increase of 17.9 tons year - on - year. The downstream yarn market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start the crushing season, with expected year - on - year increases in production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar prices are weak. The 25/26 crushing season in Guangxi is expected to have a relatively good sugar production. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price increased with rising positions. Due to heavy rainfall in the north, the listing of Red Fuji was delayed. As rainfall decreased, the trading volume increased. The market is mainly trading on cold - storage inventory. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production may be adjusted downward. The initial cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures market sentiment is divided. The supply of natural rubber is in the high - yield period, and a typhoon may affect some production areas. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased. In September, China's tire exports continued to decline. After the National Day, the tire plant operating rate rebounded. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, while the social inventory of butadiene rubber and the upstream port inventory of butadiene increased. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6] Pulp - Pulp futures prices rose slightly. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China decreased by 0.3 tons to 207.4 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease. The supply of pulp is relatively loose, and demand is average. Overseas broad - leaf pulp prices are rising, narrowing the price gap with softwood pulp. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The import willingness of traders decreased due to high foreign prices. The port outbound volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory was low. A bullish trading strategy is maintained [8]