股指期货?报：两市成交额缩量，股指反弹动力不足

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The Sino-US trade friction eased over the weekend, leading to a collective higher opening of stock indices today, with the market moving in a volatile manner. The economic data for September showed that investment and consumption remained weak, and the real estate sector continued to be sluggish. However, the market has expectations for the weak fundamentals and is less sensitive to them, instead trading more on expected market conditions and anticipating the introduction of subsequent incremental policies. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly, and the open interest of index futures declined, indicating strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Except for the IH contract, the basis of index futures has significantly declined. In particular, the volume-weighted average basis of IC and IM has fallen to a historical low below 1%, suggesting that although market sentiment has improved, the strength and confidence are somewhat insufficient. The report believes that today's rebound is more of a repair of Friday's decline, so the rebound momentum and sustainability are not strong. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held this week, and with the support of policy利好 expectations, the downside space of stock indices is limited, and they are expected to move in a volatile manner [4]. Market Review - Today, stock indices opened higher and fluctuated, closing higher collectively. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 0.53%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 200.511 billion yuan. Index futures all declined with reduced volume [2]. Important Information - He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides had a candid, in-depth, and constructive exchange on important issues in bilateral economic and trade relations around implementing the important consensus reached in the previous calls between the two heads of state this year and agreed to hold a new round of Sino-US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [3]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the total retail sales of consumer goods in September were 419.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 6.5%. From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. From January to September, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the trading opportunity of going long on IF and short on IM [5]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.64 | 0.50 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.2287 | 5.2619 | 13.4833 | 22.8283 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | -5.7144 | -3.6593 | -3.7567 | -6.263 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.7451 | 8.9892 | 24.3216 | 35.4337 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.8343 | -0.803 | -0.3371 | -0.9885 | [5][8] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.63 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.98 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.12 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1737.605 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (billion yuan) | -200.511 | [8]