生猪鸡蛋周报：生猪关注出栏节奏，鸡蛋关注淘鸡进度-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Ih2601 contract for live pigs is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The supply of live pigs is increasing due to the high inventory of breeding sows and the recovery of production performance. The demand is expected to be seasonally strong, but the rebound space of pig prices in the second half of 2025 is limited, and the overall price will still be under pressure. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and insufficient demand acceptance lead to weak market sentiment. It is recommended to sell short on rallies [3]. - The jd2601 contract for eggs is also in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year-on-year, and the supply pressure continues to weigh on prices. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but the fluctuation range is limited. Considering the cost and profit issues, the egg price is expected to remain at a low level. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to limit the demand acceptance, and the price will still be under pressure. It is recommended to sell short on rallies [3]. Summary by Directory Pig Section - Supply Analysis - The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the normal level of 30 million. The supply of live pigs will remain high until the first half of 2026. The出栏 rhythm of farmers may affect the short - term supply [11]. - After the previous active selling by farmers, the large - sized pigs have been digested. The出栏 weight has decreased slightly, but due to the cold weather and the strong price difference between fat and standard pigs, the decrease in出栏 weight is expected to be limited, and the weight will still remain at a relatively high level [12]. - Demand Analysis - As the weather turns cooler, the downstream demand has rebounded slightly, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. In addition to the actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term demand, but the secondary fattening sentiment has declined after the recent price rebound [25]. - Cost and Profit Analysis - As of October 16, the breeding cost of self - breeding and self - raising scale farms is 12.49 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets is 14.39 yuan/kg. The breeding enterprises are in a loss state, and the production capacity has been reduced to some extent [35]. - Policy Analysis - The state has carried out central pork reserve purchase and storage work to regulate market supply and demand and ensure the stable operation of the pig market. In the case of excessive price decline, the third batch of central pork reserve purchase and storage work will be launched [42]. - Spread and Basis Analysis - The report provides data on various spreads and bases of live pigs, such as the 09, 01, 05, 03, 11, 07, 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 3 - 5, 5 - 7, 1 - 3, 7 - 9, 9 - 11, 11 - 1 spreads and bases in Henan [50][56][65]. Egg Section - Supply Analysis - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the number of new - hatched chickens in the fourth quarter will decrease. At the same time, the number of culled chickens has increased, so the inventory of laying hens in the fourth quarter may decline, but it will still remain at a high level year - on - year, and the egg supply is sufficient [72]. - Recently, the replenishment has weakened, and the number of culled chickens has increased, which has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent, but the inventory of laying hens is still high [73]. - Cost Analysis - Recently, the feed cost has decreased, and the breeding cost has also weakened. Currently, the breeding cost is about 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [74]. - Demand Analysis - In the long - term, the egg consumption is related to population, economy, and consumer preferences. In the short - and medium - term, the egg demand has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the downstream low - price replenishment and e - commerce promotions have provided some support [83][84]. - Substitute and Inventory Analysis - The report provides data on the prices of main meats and vegetables, as well as the inventory days of eggs in the production and circulation links [97]. - Spread and Basis Analysis - The report provides data on various spreads and bases of eggs, such as the 5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1 spreads and the 10, 12, 11, 01, 05, 09 bases in Hebei [97].