银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After experiencing consecutive days of continuous increases, precious metals declined in response to Trump's softening signal on trade negotiations last Friday night, with a moderation in risk aversion and the reappearance of the "TACO" trade. For the future market, attention should be focused on the progress of risk events such as the US government shutdown, credit explosions in US regional banks, and Sino - US negotiations. Even if precious metals correct in the future, it is a healthy market performance, and there is no need to be overly worried about short - term sharp rises and falls. The report tends to believe that the long - term upward foundation of precious metals has not changed [8][10] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: During the day, precious metals fluctuated within a narrow range. London gold was trading around $4260, and London silver was trading around $52.1. Driven by the external market, Shanghai gold closed down 1.63% at 970.32 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract closed down 3.99% at 11,742 yuan/kilogram [3] - Dollar index: The dollar index opened high and closed low, currently trading around 98.5 [4] - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was consolidating at a low level, currently trading around 4.024% [5] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB against the US dollar fluctuated within a narrow range, currently trading around 7.1229 [6] Important Information - Tariff trends: He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks [7] - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 1%. The probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut by December is 94%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 6% [7] - Geopolitical conflicts: Trump said the US may not provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine, and his meeting with Putin will be a "bilateral meeting" [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on Shanghai gold with a light position based on the 5 - day moving average; go long on Shanghai silver with a light position based on the support around the 10 - day moving average [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data and corresponding charts, including the relationship between the dollar index and precious metal trends, the relationship between real yields and precious metal trends, the trends of domestic and foreign futures, the trends of futures and spot prices, internal and external price differences, the gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [16][19][20]