银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, with the national inventory of laying hens in September reaching 1.368 billion, higher than expected. The demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. Near - month contracts are likely to oscillate weakly, and one can consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Egg Price: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.09 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country have declined [6]. - Laying Hen Inventory: In September, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million. It is estimated that the inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 will be approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - Hen Culling: In the week of October 16, the number of culled hens in the main producing areas was 20.32 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 499 days, the same as the previous week [7]. - Egg Sales: As of October 17, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7,374 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of October 17, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 0.51 yuan/hen, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - Inventory: As of October 17, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous week [8]. - Culled Hen Price: The average price of culled hens in the main producing areas is 4.19 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8]. 3.2 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens is high, and the demand is generally weak. Without significant improvement in the short - term, egg prices are expected to be weak, and near - month contracts are likely to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Single - sided: Consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10].