Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 11:32Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn: The supply pressure of US corn will gradually increase as the harvest progresses, putting downward pressure on prices. In the domestic market, the enthusiasm of farmers in the Northeast to sell grain has slightly decreased due to snowfall. The purchasing scope of Sinograin is expanding, and some traders and enterprises are more willing to build inventories in advance. The arrival of grain at enterprise factories has significantly decreased, and the price cut of deep - processing enterprises has also decreased. The corn futures price rebounded slightly today, but the overall price is expected to weaken as the supply of new - season corn increases [2]. - Corn Starch: The cost support of corn starch has declined as the price of raw material corn weakens. After the holiday, the industry's operating rate has increased significantly, and the inventory has slightly increased. The industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch still exist, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. The starch market maintains a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2380 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton. - The corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 112 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. - The futures holding volume of yellow corn (active contract) is 30648 hands, and that of corn starch is 53048 hands, a decrease of 10702 hands. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch is - 52803 hands, a decrease of 3788 hands [2]. External Market - The futures closing price of CBOT corn (active contract) is 423 cents per bushel. - The total position of CBOT corn (weekly) is 1543065 contracts, an increase of 13269 contracts. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn (weekly) is - 15017 contracts, a decrease of 51186 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2262.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39 yuan/ton. - The factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the corn starch main contract is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 425.26 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.89 million tons, an increase of 0.77 million tons. - The predicted sown area of corn in Brazil is 131 million hectares, and the predicted output is 22.6 million tons. - The predicted sown area of corn in Argentina is 53 million hectares, and the predicted output is 7.5 million tons [2]. Industrial Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 203.6 million tons, a decrease of 8.2 million tons. - The inventory of deep - processing corn is 38.7 million tons. - The import volume of corn in September 2025 is 6 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The output of feed in September is 2927.2 million tons. - The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is 56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 53.19%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 56.74%, an increase of 4.93 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.22%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points. - The 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.83%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 15.05%, an increase of 2.55 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Nearly 70% of the autumn grain harvest is completed nationwide. For different crops, over 70% of medium - season rice, over 60% of corn, and over 80% of soybeans have been harvested. Regionally, over 80% in the southwest, over 70% in the northwest and Huang - Huai - Hai region, 65% in the Northeast and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and nearly 30% in South China [2]. - In September 2025, the import volume of corn and corn flour is 6 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture did not release the crop progress report due to the government shutdown, and the market trading remains cautious [2]. Key Points of Attention Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].