Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The late - maturing Fuji apples are expected to have a low premium fruit rate, with a high opening price and high costs for making futures warehouse receipts. The futures market price is expected to remain in a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term [10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index was 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous trading day; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 7.01, down 0.08. Some apple prices, like the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, remained unchanged [3]. - Futures Prices: AP01 closed at 8862, up 240; AP05 closed at 9324, up 607; AP10 closed at 9400, up 220. The spreads between different contracts also changed significantly [3]. Second Part: Market News and Views - Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 14.79 million tons, a decrease of 6.02 million tons from the previous week [6]. - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 684 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The cumulative export volume from January to August was about 5.327 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. The import volume in August was 118 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 984 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6]. - In Shandong, apple trading prices were stable last Friday. Over the weekend, apple procurement began in Shandong, but the overall quality of the fruits sold by farmers was average and the trading volume was low. In the northwest, the amount of tradable apples increased after the rain stopped [7]. - The profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia for the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8]. - In Shandong, new - season paper - bagged Fuji apples started to be purchased in small quantities, with low trading volume and varying purchase prices. In Shaanxi, the ordering price of apples in Luochuan was stable, and the enthusiasm for ordering high - quality apples was relatively high [9]. - Trading Logic: Due to small fruit sizes in some areas of Shaanxi and water - crack problems caused by continuous rain, the premium fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji apples is expected to be low, leading to high opening prices and high costs for making futures warehouse receipts [10]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The apple futures market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term due to the expected low premium fruit rate [11]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Third Part: Related Attachments The section includes multiple charts showing historical data of apple prices, basis, spreads, arrival volumes, cold - storage inventory, and cold - storage outbound volume from 2019 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [14][15][17]
银河期货农产品日报-20251020
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-20 11:37