银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20251020

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: CF01 closed at 13465 with a gain of 130, volume of 289,731 (increase of 109660), and open interest of 592,998 (increase of 6531); CF05 closed at 13530 with a gain of 140, volume of 82,594 (increase of 42113), and open interest of 196,748 (increase of 18170); CF09 closed at 13700 with a gain of 135, volume of 635 (increase of 136), and open interest of 1,918 (increase of 238); CY01 closed at 19605 with a gain of 135, volume of 13680 (increase of 1115), and open interest of 22155 (increase of 1484); CY05 closed at 19720 with a gain of 130, volume of 7 (increase of 7), and open interest of 20 (increase of 2); CY09 closed at 19900 with a gain of 155, volume of 1 (increase of 1), and open interest of 4 (no change) [3] - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B was 14679 yuan/ton (up 15), CY IndexC32S was 20440 (no change), Cot A was 75.10 cents/pound, FCY IndexC33S was 21218 (up 4), (FC Index):M: to - port price was 73.40 (no change), Indian S - 6 was 55800 (no change), polyester staple fiber was 7450 (up 70), pure polyester yarn T32S was 10950 (down 50), viscose staple fiber was 13000 (no change), and viscose yarn R30S was 17250 (no change) [3] - Spreads: Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was - 65 (down 10), 5 - 9 month spread was - 170 (up 5), 9 - 1 month spread was 235 (up 5);棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was - 115 (up 5), 5 - 9 month spread was - 180 (down 25), 9 - 1 month spread was 295 (up 20); CY01 - CF01 spread was 6140 (up 5), CY05 - CF05 spread was 6190 (down 10), CY09 - CF09 spread was 6200 (up 20); 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 3224 (up 1852), sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 1609 (up 1094), internal - external yarn spread was - 778 (down 4) [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On October 20, 2025, the Xinjiang - outbound cotton road transport price index was 0.1797 yuan/ton·km, up 0.06% month - on - month. Transport demand and capacity resources both decreased slightly, and the index is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [6] - In September 2025, China's cotton cloth imports were 3628.19 million meters (up 17.58% year - on - year, down 8.28% month - on - month), 4603.92 tons (up 11.63% year - on - year, down 0.32% month - on - month), and the import value was 28.0053 million US dollars (down 2.47% year - on - year, up 2.23% month - on - month) [6] - As of the week ending October 17, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 27% slower than the same period last year. Upland cotton inspection volume was 376,100 tons (13.37% progress, 27% slower), and Pima cotton inspection volume was 600 tons (1% progress, 92% slower) [6] Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton entered the acquisition stage, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang cotton production is high and ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, with no large - scale rush to buy. Some acquisition prices are around 6 yuan/kg. As new cotton is widely available, there will be selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand in the market is average, and the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so the peak season performance this year is not expected to be outstanding, and the boost to the futures market will be limited [7] Trading Strategy - Single - side: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a volatile trend [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - From last week's market sales, fabric mills reported that trading in October was worse than in September. Fabric mills generally expect to maintain just - in - time sales in October, and the market is unlikely to exceed that in September. Currently, the operating rate of knitting circular machine factories in the Guangdong market is mostly 20% - 30%, and the probability of a rebound in the operating rate is high. Fabric mills have low expectations for the market in the second half of the month [8] - On Friday night, Zhengzhou cotton opened and closed higher, and cotton yarn futures followed suit, with the market warming up. There was little change in the trading of pure cotton yarn over the weekend [9] Group 3: Options - Option data: On October 20, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 199.00 (up 40.1%); for CF601P13000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 53.00 (down 36.9%); for CF601P12400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 17.00 (down 20.5%) [12] - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton on this day was 8.542, with a slight decline compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.9%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.9% [12] - Option Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7151, and the volume PCR was 0.7237. Both call and put option volumes increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [13] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread and CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [13][18][19][25]