生猪周报：生猪周报供应压力好转价格小幅反弹-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the live pig prices across the country showed a slight rebound, but the overall supply pressure remained high. Although the entry of secondary fattening has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent, the overall demand was still weak, and the pig market remained in a state of loose supply and demand, with prices expected to face certain pressure. The futures prices are also expected to decline as the spot prices are likely to continue to fall [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - The supply pressure of live pigs has improved slightly due to the increase in the number of secondary fattening, but the overall supply pressure remains high. The demand is still weak, with high slaughter volume, increasing frozen product inventory, and a decline in the fresh - sales rate. The futures prices are expected to decline as the spot prices are likely to continue to fall [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Continue to short on rallies. - Arbitrage: LH15 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Pig Prices - This week, the live pig prices across the country showed a rebound trend. The prices in most regions increased, except for a decline in South China. The entry of secondary fattening supported the pig prices to some extent [12]. 3.3 Changes in Slaughter and Consumption 3.3.1 Slaughter Situation - The weekly live pig slaughter volume remained high. Large - scale enterprises and ordinary farmers had high slaughter enthusiasm. The entry of secondary fattening increased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly to 128.25 kg. The subsequent market pressure is expected to remain high [13]. 3.3.2 Consumption Situation - The weekly live pig demand was still weak. The slaughter volume and frozen product inventory increased, the fresh - sales rate decreased, and the subsequent demand is expected to face certain pressure [13]. 3.4 Breeding Profits - As of the week of October 17, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 244.7 yuan per head, a decrease of 92.55 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 375.29 yuan per head, a decrease of 74.25 yuan per head from the previous week. The breeding profit declined due to the significant drop in pig prices [20]. 3.5 Prices of Sows and Piglets - The price of 7 - kg piglets this week was 173 yuan per head, a decrease of 10 yuan per head from the previous week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 266 yuan per head, a decrease of 14 yuan per head from the previous week. The price of sows was 1545 yuan per head, a decrease of 18 yuan per head from the previous week. The culling enthusiasm of sows was average [23]. 3.6 Inventory of Reproductive Sows - In September, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased month - on - month according to both Yongyi and Ganglian data. Overall, the inventory of reproductive sows showed a downward trend due to continuous breeding losses [26].