冠通期货聚烯烃周报-20251020

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Weekly Report - Release Time: October 20, 2025 - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Report Issuer: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term due to factors such as cost pressure, new capacity releases, and under - expected seasonal demand [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Plastic and PP prices are oscillating downward [4] - The cost of crude oil has declined due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, OPEC+ plan to increase production in November, and the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions [3] - New capacity has been added, including the trial operation of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, and the recent commissioning of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton/year PE and 400,000 - ton/year PP [3] - Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, the demand is under - expected, and the stocking demand has weakened after the National Day [3] - Sino - US mutual collection of special port fees for ships has increased concerns about economic growth [3] - There is no actual anti - involution policy in the polyolefin industry, but relevant macro - policies will affect future market trends [3] Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate has risen by 0.5 percentage points to around 88%, at a neutral level, due to the restart of maintenance devices at Yulong Petrochemical [14] - PP operating rate has dropped by 2 percentage points to around 82%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, because of new maintenance devices at Tianjin Bohua [14] Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of October 17, PE downstream operating rate has increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Agricultural film orders and raw material inventories have increased after the National Day, but are still lower than in previous years, and packaging film orders have slightly decreased [20] - As of the week of October 17, PP downstream operating rate has rebounded by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85%, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving operating rate has remained flat at 44.26%, and plastic weaving orders have continued to slightly decrease, slightly lower than last year [20] Plastic Basis - The basis of the 01 contract has risen to 196 yuan/ton, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, as the futures price has declined more than the spot price [25] Plastic and PP Inventories - During the National Day holiday, petrochemical early - morning inventories increased by 270,000 tons. As of Friday, they decreased by 30,000 tons to 770,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year is similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [29]