冠通期货研究报告

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is in a situation where supply is at a relatively high level, demand is restricted, and prices are oscillating downward. Given the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, potential increased volatility in crude oil prices, and the strong basis in Shandong region, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines regarding asphalt futures prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - The asphalt price is oscillating downward [5] 3.2 Supply Side - The asphalt开工率 (operating rate) increased by 1.3 percentage points week - on - week to 35.8%, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and is at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years. Shandong and East China have individual refineries with intermittent production [4][19]. - The estimated domestic asphalt production in October is 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons month - on - month (a decrease of 0.1%), and an increase of 0.35 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 15.0%) [4]. - Refineries such as Wudi Xinyue have maintenance plans, and asphalt production will decrease but still remain at a high level [4] 3.3 Demand Side - As of the week ending October 17th, after the National Day holiday, the national asphalt shipment volume increased by 14.48% week - on - week to 253,300 tons, at a moderately low level [4][23]. - From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 2.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1% [28]. - As of the week ending October 17th, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate remained unchanged week - on - week at 29.0%, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [4][28] 3.4 Inventory - As of the week ending October 17th, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points week - on - week to 16.6%, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [33] 3.5 Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,380 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 245 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [14]