尿素周报：内需不足，尿素连续累库-20251020

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The bearish sentiment towards urea has improved, and the price has stopped falling and stabilized after reaching the cost line. However, as autumn fertilizers are gradually ending, agricultural demand support is expected to be short - lived. Future urea demand will mainly be for reserve purchases, with high pressure on inventory reduction. The market will generally remain sluggish, and the price will stop falling and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the impact of major domestic conferences on the market and any changes in exports [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - Due to the delay in the farming season, downstream buyers are not active, and upstream factories' quotes are mainly weakly stable, resulting in a stalemate between upstream and downstream. Since the weekend, urea prices have been moderately declining. The autumn fertilizer market is in progress but lacks vitality [3]. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market showed mixed trends, with an overall relatively strong performance. As of October 20, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,600 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the settlement price on October 13. Last week's weekly trading volume was 14.278 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7114 million tons; the open interest was 8.1525 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5074 million tons. The bearish sentiment in the market has weakened, and the market has stopped falling and stabilized, but there is no strong driving force for a significant rebound. The basis has strengthened. As of October 20, the basis of the 01 contract was - 50 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2 yuan/ton. On October 20, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,238, a week - on - week decrease of 679 [5][8]. Urea Supply - Last week, urea weekly production decreased. From October 9 - 15, urea weekly production was 1.3205 million tons, a decrease of 69,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%, with an average daily production of 188,600 tons. Coal - based weekly production was 1.1097 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.37%; gas - based weekly production was 280,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%. Small - particle weekly production was 112,180 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.28%; large - particle weekly production was 268,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. Next week, production is expected to continue to decline. On October 20, the national daily urea production was 195,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.39%. Coal prices have risen, and the price of domestic liquefied natural gas has fallen. As of October 20, the benchmark price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 3,662 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. The price center of synthetic ammonia has moved down, and the methanol spot price has risen [11][13][15]. Urea Demand - Last week, the price of compound fertilizers remained flat compared to the previous week. As of October 20, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizers was 2,900 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Due to the delay in autumn harvest and sowing, downstream buyers are cautious, mostly replenishing at low prices without concentrated purchases. Compound fertilizer factories have reduced their operating loads, and terminal sales are mainly focused on digesting finished product inventories. The compound fertilizer operating rate has decreased. From October 13 - 20, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29 percentage points from the previous period, but 3.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The demand for melamine is still weak. As of October 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6154 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 171,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.88%, and 498,900 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 4.446 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous week [19][20][21]. International Market - On October 15, India's RCF urea import tender received 3.66 million tons of supplies from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR quote on the west coast was $402/ton, and on the east coast was $395/ton. The tender price was lower than market expectations, and the international urea price was not significantly boosted. In September 2025, China's urea export volume was about 1.37 million tons, and from January to September 2025, the total export volume was about 2.81 million tons. As of October 17, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was $385/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was $392.5/ton, unchanged from the previous week [23][25].