鸡蛋周报：现货弱势不改，负基差压制盘面反弹-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is in an off - season with supply exceeding demand. The overall supply pressure is large due to high - level operation of production capacity, slowdown in new replenishment, continuous start - up of previous replenishment, and ineffective removal of backward production capacity. Demand support is not obvious. Cost has slightly declined, but the breeding profit has returned to a loss. The market maintains a near - weak and far - strong structure, and it is recommended to hold short positions before the festival and pay attention to fund management [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Review - Egg futures fluctuated weakly last week, high in the front and low in the back. Affected by the spot, they maintained a near - weak and far - strong pattern. All contracts are at a premium to the spot and are constantly repairing the basis through price drops [6]. 3.2 Spot Review - Last week, the egg spot bottomed out and rebounded. After the post - holiday decline, the sales areas started to replenish stocks. With the temperature drop, the production areas were reluctant to sell. Currently, the benchmark spot price is fluctuating around 2.5 yuan per catty, at a historical low. The market is under pressure again and is constantly searching for the bottom [12]. 3.3 Supply - Newly - added production capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025. The replenishment volume has a seasonal decline, and the newly - added production capacity from August to November has dropped significantly. The chick price has dropped significantly, and the enthusiasm for replenishment has decreased, affecting the newly - added supply in the fourth quarter. - Eliminated production capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal eliminated production capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but there is an obvious delay in elimination currently. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continued to increase slightly but started to decrease in September. The newly - added is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists, but it is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [17]. 3.4 Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens has stabilized, the elimination volume has continued to increase, and the average elimination age has shown a weakening trend. The price of eliminated chickens is 4.22 yuan per catty (- 0.08), the elimination price has stabilized with a slight rebound; the elimination volume has continued to increase, and it has entered an accelerated elimination stage; the elimination age is 498 days, a weekly decrease of 2 days, indicating a loosening in elimination [20]. 3.5 Seasonal and Consumption - Seasonally, it is an off - season, and the price has a seasonal decline and is hitting the bottom again. The production areas currently have little inventory pressure and a strong willingness to stockpile. After the festival, the stocking is over, the rigid demand support has weakened, and the price has declined [23]. 3.6 Substitute Products - Vegetables: There has been obvious low - temperature precipitation across the country, and vegetable prices are relatively strong. - Pork: The price is at a low level and searching for the bottom, which has an obvious suppressing effect on eggs. - Other meats: The prices of other meats have strengthened at this stage [25]. 3.7 Cost & Profit - Cost side: The price of corn has dropped significantly, and the spot price of soybean meal has fluctuated weakly. The overall cost has maintained a fluctuating decline. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, the spot price of eggs has had a seasonal decline. Although the cost side has fluctuated downwards, the decline in the egg spot price is obvious, and the profit has turned into a loss again and returned to a weak state [27]. 3.8 Capital - After the capital reached a high level and then declined, it has entered the market again. Old long - position holders have stopped losses, and new long - position holders have entered the market, waiting for the arrival of the cycle conversion [33]. 3.9 Basis - The basis is negative, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern [37]. 3.10 Spread Trend - The spot price has reached a peak and then maintained a shock. The futures market is generally in a positive market, with a near - weak and far - strong, reverse - spread structure [40].