Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic urea market is currently characterized by a loose supply - demand situation. Although the export window is about to close and the impact on the domestic market sentiment is limited, the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. With the end of autumn fertilizer demand in North and Central China, the overall demand is declining. In the short term, the domestic demand remains limited, and the spot market sentiment is still low. The fundamental situation is still loose, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1600 (unchanged, 0% change) [3]. - Spot Market: The ex - factory prices were stable to slightly lower, and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1490 - 1500 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1400 - 1470 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On October 20th, the daily urea production in the industry was 182,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous working day and a decrease of 6600 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.99%, a decrease of 6.83 percentage points compared to 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment and Price Forecast: In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory price led the decline, and the market sentiment was average. It is expected that the ex - factory price will be weakly stable. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the ex - factory price followed the decline. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory price was weakly stable, and it is expected to decline mainly. - Supply and Demand: Some plants were under maintenance, and the average daily production decreased to around 187,000 tons. On the demand side, the result of the Indian tender was about to be announced. Although the price difference between domestic and foreign markets was large, the export window was about to close. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China was basically over, the grass - roots stocking was coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants declined, and the demand for raw materials was low. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 170,000 tons to around 1.61 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side Trading: Short on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]
银河期货尿素日报-20251020
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-20 11:44