固收、宏观周报：中美经贸关系缓和，重要会议护航-20251020

Report Information - Report Date: October 20, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] - Tel: 021 - 53686158 [1] - E - mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com [1] - SAC Number: S0870523100004 [1] - Report Title: Sino - US Economic and Trade Relations Ease, Important Meetings Provide Support — Fixed Income & Macroeconomic Weekly Report (20251013 - 20251019) [3] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - US stock market: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.14%, 1.70%, and 1.56% respectively, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index decreased by 7.27% from October 13 - 19, 2025 [3]. - Hong Kong stock market: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 3.97% from October 13 - 19, 2025 [3]. - A - share market: The wind All - A Index decreased by 3.45%. Among different indices, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind Micro - cap stocks changed by - 2.44%, - 2.22%, - 5.17%, - 4.62%, - 4.15%, and - 1.61% respectively. From a sector style perspective, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index decreased by 4.91%. Among 30 CITIC industries, 4 rose and 26 fell, with banks and coal leading the gainers with over 4.0% increase. Gold, bank, and coal ETFs also performed well with weekly gains over 4% [4]. Bond Market - Chinese bond market: The 10 - year Treasury futures contract increased by 0.29% compared to October 10, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond increased by 0.40 BP to 1.8246% compared to October 11, 2025. Yields of different - term bonds had mixed changes. The bond market leverage level increased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repo volume rising from 5.61 trillion yuan on October 11 to 8.04 trillion yuan on October 17, 2025 [5][6][7]. - US bond market: US Treasury yields decreased. As of October 17, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 3 BP to 4.02% compared to October 10, 2025. Yields of all terms decreased, and the yield curve shifted downward [8]. Currency and Commodity Market - Currency market: The US dollar index decreased by 0.27%. The US dollar depreciated against the euro, pound, and yen, with changes of - 0.29%, - 0.55%, and - 0.39% respectively. The US dollar had mixed performance against the offshore and onshore RMB, with the exchange rate against the offshore RMB decreasing by 0.29% to 7.1269 and against the onshore RMB increasing by 0.05% to 7.1265 [9]. - Commodity market: Gold prices increased. The London gold spot price rose by 6.30% to $4224.75 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 6.24% to $4234.90 per ounce. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold spot price rose by 11.09% to 997.17 yuan per gram, and the futures price rose by 10.91% to 998.20 yuan per gram [9]. Market Outlook and Recommendations - The new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations is expected to ease Sino - US economic and trade relations and boost investors' risk appetite [10]. - With the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, investors' risk appetite is expected to recover, A - shares are expected to stabilize, and structural opportunities in sectors such as gold, rare earths, AI, computing power, energy storage, solid - state batteries, and innovative drugs are worth exploring [11]. - The short - term volatility of gold may increase, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - The bond market has investment value as the current absolute yield is at a recent high, such as the 10 - year Treasury yield above 1.80% [13].