Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current economy shows significant differentiation and a general weakening trend, increasing the necessity for policy intervention to stabilize growth. For the bond market, the weakening fundamentals and loose liquidity will drive a trend of strengthening. There may be some risk disturbances in the first half of Q4, and interest rates may decline more smoothly in the second half. The situation where interest rates deviated from both fundamentals and liquidity in Q3 needs to be corrected. The short - term escalation of trade conflicts and the decline in risk appetite have promoted the correction process of the bond market. However, the lack of cooperation from allocation - type institutions, potential bond - selling pressure from banks, and the impact of public fund fee reform still exist, and interest rate declines may not be smooth. The dumbbell strategy is preferred, and short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term high - elasticity products offer higher cost - effectiveness [4][22]. Summary Based on Related Content Economic Growth and Outlook - The GDP growth rate slowed down in Q3 2025, with a real growth rate of 4.8% and a nominal growth rate of 3.7%, the lowest since Q4 2022. Although the full - year target of 5% can be achieved, there is still pressure on nominal growth. Considering the high base of Q4 last year (1.5% for real GDP growth on a quarterly - on - quarterly basis), if the quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate in Q4 does not increase significantly, there may be a continued slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate [1][7]. Economic Structural Differentiation - Supply vs. Demand: Supply is strong while demand is weak. In September, the industrial added - value growth rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, and the service industry's GDP increased by 5.6% year - on - year, remaining flat compared to the previous month. However, the consumer market and investment continued to weaken. The growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 3.0%, and the single - month fixed - asset investment growth rate slowed to - 8.4% [1][7]. - External vs. Domestic Demand: External demand is strong while domestic demand is weak. In September, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate increasing by 4.0 percentage points compared to the previous month, driving the year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value to increase by 4.2 percentage points to 3.8%, which in turn boosted the industrial added - value growth rate. However, domestic consumption and investment continued to decline [2]. - New vs. Old Economy: New economy sectors such as the Internet and new energy are growing rapidly, while old economy sectors such as real estate and infrastructure are continuously weakening. In September, the production index of the information transmission, software, and information technology service industries in the service sector increased by 12.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate increasing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. The added - value of the automotive industry in industrial added - value increased by 16% year - on - year, up 7.6 percentage points from the previous month. In contrast, real estate and infrastructure investment declined by 21.3% and 8.0% respectively in September [2]. Consumption Analysis - The growth rate of residents' disposable income slowed down, which restricted consumption. In Q3, the single - quarter year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income was 4.52%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita consumption expenditure was 3.4%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among the main sub - sectors of social retail sales, the year - on - year growth rates of many industries such as gold, silver, and jewelry, and sports and entertainment products declined. Although the growth rates of four industries with concentrated subsidies (household appliances, furniture, communication products, and office supplies) still supported the year - on - year performance of social retail sales, the policy effect has diminished [3][12]. Investment Analysis - Overall Investment: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 8.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. However, the year - on - year declines in the three major industries further widened [15]. - Manufacturing Investment: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.9%, with the decline increasing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Due to weak downstream and terminal demand, corporate profitability was under pressure, which continued to suppress investment willingness [15]. - Infrastructure Investment: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 8.0%, with the decline increasing significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. The high base from the same period last year deepened the investment decline. Although the easing of the base pressure and the implementation of some fiscal incremental policies (such as the Ministry of Finance's release of 500 billion yuan in remaining quotas on October 17) can mitigate the investment slowdown to some extent, the overall impact is limited, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue to decline year - on - year [15]. - Real Estate Investment: In September, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued to widen, reaching - 21.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued to fall to - 13.9%. The year - on - year decline in real estate sales also widened, with the sales area falling by 11.9% year - on - year. Although the declines in new construction and completion narrowed, overall, the downward trend in real estate investment continued, increasing the need for policy support [19].
新强旧弱，产强需弱
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-10-20 12:19