缩量反弹，关注宏观事件密集落地

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction rebound with over 4,000 stocks rising, but trading volume hit a two-month low, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63% to 3,863.89 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.98% to 12,813.21 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.98% to 2,993.45 points [5] - The dividend sector continued to lead the market with a 0.75% increase, showing a cumulative rise of 5.60% in October, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's decline of 0.49% [7] Macroeconomic Events - A series of macroeconomic events are expected to unfold from late October to early November, including the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and the APEC Leaders' Meeting [9] - These events are anticipated to influence market sentiment and risk appetite, with a balanced allocation strategy likely to prevail in the short term [9] Bond Market - The bond futures market saw a general decline, with long-term contracts experiencing more significant drops compared to short-term ones, reflecting profit-taking sentiment [9] - The 30-year main contract closed at 115.30, down 0.37%, while the 10-year contract fell 0.14% to 108.110 [9] Commodity Market - The commodity market displayed a mixed performance, with live pig futures rebounding by 2.88% and coking coal maintaining strength with a 2.66% increase [10] - The live pig market is showing signs of recovery as the pig-to-grain ratio reached a two-year low, prompting expectations of price rebounds [10] - Coking coal prices are supported by year-end safety inspections and recent temperature drops, with spot prices rising from 699 RMB/ton to 748 RMB/ton in October [10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation strategy in equities due to prevailing low risk appetite ahead of significant macro events [11] - In the bond market, the report indicates a need to monitor policy signals from upcoming events, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] - For commodities, the report maintains a long-term bullish outlook on precious metals while noting potential shifts in industrial products driven by policy expectations [11]