政府债周报：2025年特殊再融资债供给已逾2万亿-20251020

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including the actual and forecasted issuance amounts, the progress of special refinancing bonds and special new special - purpose bonds, and the comparison between planned and actual issuance. It also presents data on local government bond net supply, investment, and trading, as well as the investment directions of new special - purpose bonds [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - Actual and Pre - issuance Disclosure: From October 20th to October 26th, the planned issuance of local bonds is 2472.28 billion yuan, including 1136.52 billion yuan of new bonds (12.91 billion yuan of new general bonds and 1123.61 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 1335.76 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (651.36 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 684.40 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds). From October 13th to October 19th, the actual issuance of local bonds is 323.01 billion yuan, including 200.91 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 200.91 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 122.10 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (24.96 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 97.14 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds) [1][5][6]. - Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance: Comparisons are made between the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in September and October 2025, and for different regions and bond types [15][20][21]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - New Bond Issuance Progress: As of October 19th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 83.53%, and that of new special - purpose bonds is 84.55% [26]. - Refinancing Bond Net Supply: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of October 19th [27]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics: As of October 19th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds total 20235.13 billion yuan, with an additional 214.00 billion yuan to be added next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Guizhou (1324.32 billion yuan), and Hunan (1290.00 billion yuan) [7]. - Special New Special - Purpose Bond Issuance Statistics: As of October 19th, 2025 special new special - purpose bonds total 12029.16 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 23907.80 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2340.35 billion yuan), Xinjiang (1311.70 billion yuan), and Hubei (1287.69 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [7]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - Primary - Secondary Spread: The report presents the primary and secondary spreads of local bonds, as well as the regional secondary spreads [40][41]. 3.5 New Special - Purpose Bond Investment Directions - Monthly Project Investment Statistics: The investment directions of new special - purpose bonds are presented, with the latest month's statistics considering only issued new bonds [42].