三季度经济数据点评：经济增长要看多长？

Economic Growth Outlook - The actual GDP growth in Q3 was 4.8% year-on-year, with a probability of achieving the 5% annual growth target still intact[2] - To meet the 5% target, Q4 GDP needs to reach a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 1.11%[10] - The industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment decreased by 6.8%[7] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Production has outperformed demand, with exports, consumption, and investment showing varying degrees of decline[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q3 was 3.7%, with the GDP deflator index improving slightly to -1.02%[10] - The industrial capacity utilization rate rose to 74.6%, indicating a more balanced production and sales environment[10] Short-term Challenges - October's growth faces challenges due to high base effects from the previous year, with significant declines in both investment and consumption expected[10] - Fixed asset investment has turned negative at -0.5% year-to-date, marking the weakest performance since August 2020[10] - Retail sales growth in September dropped to 3%, with declines in durable goods sales and restaurant revenues[10] Policy Recommendations - There is a necessity for counter-cyclical policies to stabilize the economy, especially if demand continues to decline[10] - The government has preemptively allocated 500 billion yuan for local bond issuance, reflecting a commitment to macroeconomic support[2] - Monitoring the marginal changes in monetary and demand-side policies will be crucial as demand trends evolve[2]