流动性和机构行为周度观察：税期及跨月前流动性预计延续宽松-20251020

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the liquidity and institutional behavior in the bond market from October 13 - 26, 2025. It shows that the overall liquidity is loose, and it is expected to remain so before the tax period and cross - month disturbances. The government bond net payment scale increases, the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) maturity yield rises, and the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market and the duration of pure bond funds both increase marginally [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Funding Situation - Central Bank Operations: From October 13 - 17, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 3479 billion yuan, and the treasury cash fixed - term deposit matured for 1500 billion yuan. On October 15, a 6000 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repurchase was carried out. In October, the outright reverse repurchase had a net injection of 4000 billion yuan, and the MLF is due for 7000 billion yuan this month [6]. - Funding Rate: Overnight and 7 - day funding rates are mostly lower. From October 13 - 17, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.31% and 1.36% respectively, and the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.43% and 1.47% respectively. It is expected that the funding situation will remain relatively loose before the tax period and cross - month disturbances [7]. - Government Bond Net Payment: From October 13 - 19, the government bond net payment scale was about 1402 billion yuan, an increase of about 1395 billion yuan compared with October 9 - 12. From October 20 - 26, it is expected to be 1583.7 billion yuan [8]. Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit (NCD) - Maturity Yield: As of October 17, 2025, the 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCD maturity yields increased by 4.1, 3.8, and 1.6 basis points respectively compared with October 11 [9]. - Net Financing Amount: From October 13 - 19, the NCD net financing amount was about 2247 billion yuan. From October 20 - 26, the NCD maturity repayment amount is expected to be 6179 billion yuan. The NCD maturity scale in the fourth quarter is about 8.1 trillion yuan, and the pressure for renewal upon maturity gradually increases [9]. Institutional Behavior - Leverage Ratio of Inter - bank Bond Market: From October 13 - 17, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.78%, slightly higher than that from October 9 - 11 [10]. - Duration of Pure Bond Funds: On October 17, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 5.31 years, up 0.59 years week - on - week, and the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 2.27 years, up 0.51 years week - on - week [10].