Guoxin Securities·2025-10-20 15:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector continues to face pressure, with significant declines in investment and sales figures. The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development investment reached 13.9% for the first nine months of 2025, with new housing starts down 18.9% and completed housing down 15.3% [4][45] - The sales performance of new commercial housing has weakened, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 7.9% in sales revenue and 5.5% in sales area for the same period. The sales figures for September 2025 indicate a year-on-year decline of 11.8% in sales revenue and 10.5% in sales area [6][45] - The report suggests that the high base effect from last year's fourth quarter will create significant pressure this year, leading to increased policy expectations that may provide opportunities for the real estate sector [5][72] Summary by Sections Investment and Sales Data - In the first nine months of 2025, national real estate development investment totaled 67,706 billion, down 13.9% year-on-year. New housing starts were 45,399 million square meters, down 18.9%, and completed housing was 31,129 million square meters, down 15.3% [4][45] - The sales area of new commercial housing was 65,835 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, and sales revenue was 63,040 billion, down 7.9% [4][6] Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing was 9,575 yuan per square meter, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the rate of decline compared to previous months. In September, the average price was 9,406 yuan per square meter, down 1.4% year-on-year [22][45] Development Investment and Funding - Real estate development investment accelerated its decline, with a year-on-year drop of 13.9% for the first nine months. Funding for real estate enterprises was 72,299 billion, down 8.4% year-on-year [45][58] - In September, the year-on-year decline in development investment was 21.3%, while funding saw a decline of 11.5% [45][58] Construction Data - The new housing starts for the first nine months were 45,399 million square meters, down 18.9%, while completed housing was 31,129 million square meters, down 15.3%. However, September saw a year-on-year improvement in completed housing [58][45]