资产配置日报：继续缩量-20251020

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant reduction in trading volume in the equity market, indicating a lack of strong investor participation and a cautious market sentiment [1][2] - The report suggests that the current market environment is characterized by a risk-off attitude, with a notable decrease in trading volume, which has reached its lowest level since August 11 [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring volume changes, as a potential shift from low to high volume could impact future investment strategies [2][3] Equity Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound with a 0.79% increase, but trading volume decreased by 203.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rise by 2.42% and 3.00%, respectively, while southbound capital recorded a net outflow of 2.67 billion HKD [1] - The report notes that the AI computing power sector, including optical modules and circuit boards, has shown strength but has not significantly improved risk appetite among investors [1][2] Market Volume Dynamics - The report identifies that the current state of reduced trading volume may lead to a prolonged period of market testing patience, with a preference for dividend stocks during this phase [2] - It is suggested that if trading volume continues to decline, structural risks in the market may gradually be released, allowing for increased positions in dividend stocks while waiting for new thematic investment opportunities [2][3] - The report warns that if trading volume drops below 1.5 trillion yuan, investors should consider cautiously allocating small positions in thematic stocks to capitalize on potential rebounds [2] Bond Market Overview - The bond market is influenced by risk appetite, with recent developments in U.S.-China relations contributing to a slight increase in interest rates [4][5] - The report indicates that the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile state until clearer signals emerge regarding interest rates and economic policies [5] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, particularly with 7-10 year government bonds, while looking for short-term recovery opportunities [5] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing a correction, particularly in precious metals, which have seen significant outflows of capital [6][7] - The report highlights a divergence in the performance of "anti-involution" related commodities, with some, like live pigs, rebounding after previous declines, while others, such as glass and polysilicon, are under pressure [6][7] - The overall market correction is viewed as a normal adjustment following previous over-exuberance, with future focus shifting back to the supply and demand fundamentals of individual commodities [6][7]