光大证券晨会速递-20251021

Macro Analysis - The economic data for Q3 2025 indicates favorable conditions for achieving the annual growth target, with infrastructure investment expected to stabilize and recover due to ongoing fiscal policy support [1] - Exports are likely to be supported by non-US regions, but high base effects from last year's Q4 may exert pressure on year-over-year comparisons [1] - The effectiveness of the "trade-in" policy for consumption is diminishing, and the real estate market's ability to maintain its recovery momentum observed in September remains uncertain [1] Non-Banking Sector - Three listed insurance companies reported significant earnings growth for the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding expectations [2] - As of the end of H1 2025, the stock asset ratio of five listed insurance companies reached 9.3%, the highest in nearly a decade, indicating a strong performance in the equity market [2] - The expected recovery in economic outlook and stable capital markets may continue to drive the beta performance of insurance stocks [2] Real Estate Sector - As of October 19, 2025, new home sales in 20 cities totaled 614,000 units, a decrease of 7.3% year-over-year, with notable declines in Beijing (-14%) and Shenzhen (-9%) [3] - In contrast, second-hand home sales in 10 cities increased by 8.9% year-over-year, with significant growth in Shenzhen (+23%) and Shanghai (+15%) [3] Company Research - Cangge Mining - Cangge Mining reported revenue of 2.401 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 3.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.751 billion yuan, up 47.26% [4] - The substantial profit growth is attributed to rising prices of potassium chloride and copper [4] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.645 billion, 4.845 billion, and 5.828 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining an "accumulate" rating [4] Company Research - Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical - Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 4.160 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4.92%, with a net profit of 748 million yuan, up 18.51% [5] - The company's CDMO business is showing signs of recovery, and its current valuation is considered relatively low compared to historical levels [5] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 933 million, 1.089 billion, and 1.207 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 14 times [5]