Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a defensive state, waiting for the major deal between China and the United States at the end of the month. Enterprises' profit improvement expectations and policy support effects are still clear. In the short - term, domestic demand sectors may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the medium - to - long - term investment mainlines. A - shares are currently attractively valued for foreign investors. [1][2][3] - Foreign institutions are optimistic about the long - term value of the Chinese A - share market, as evidenced by their high - frequency research and subsequent substantial allocations. [2] - Traders are betting on the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points in the upcoming meetings. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - On Monday, the major indices in the two markets opened higher, then rose and fell back, and fluctuated. The trading volume was 1.73 trillion yuan, showing a continued decline. The CSI 300 index closed at 4538 points, up 23 points or 0.53%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2974 points, up 7 points or 0.24%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7069 points, up 53 points or 0.76%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7239 points, up 53 points or 0.75%. [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were communication equipment ETF, coal ETF, etc., while those with the highest losses were gold stock ETF, mining ETF, etc. Among the sector indices in the two markets, forestry, cultivated diamonds, etc. had the highest gains, while precious metals, feed, etc. had the highest losses. [1] - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 indices had net outflows of 3 billion, 2.3 billion, 1.6 billion, and 700 million yuan respectively. [1] Important Information - In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. In the first three quarters, the output of industrial robots, service robots, and EMUs increased by 29.8%, 16.3%, and 8.6% respectively. [1] - From January to September, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% month - on - month. [1] - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry increased by 9.7% year - on - year; the retail sales of communication equipment, furniture, and sports and entertainment products increased by 16.2%, 16.2%, and 11.9% respectively. [1] - As of October 17, the net inflow of the ETF market in October reached 99.161 billion yuan. Equity ETFs contributed 92.457 billion yuan, accounting for over 90%. More than 50 index funds are planned to be issued this month. [1][2] - Unitree released the 180 - cm - tall Unitree H2 humanoid robot, which has 31 degrees of freedom and can perform complex movements. Unitree is deepening its "full - size, full - scenario, full - price" strategy. [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that although AI infrastructure investment has reached a new high in nominal terms, it is not exaggerated compared with historical technology cycles. The current AI investment in the US accounts for less than 1% of GDP, while in historical technology cycles such as railways, electrification, and IT, the investment peak accounted for 2 - 5% of GDP. [2] - Goldman Sachs expects that after the full application of generative AI, the labor productivity in the US will increase by 15% over the next 10 years, bringing 8 trillion US dollars in capital income to US enterprises. [2] - A Morgan Chase report indicates that after the realization of autonomous driving, the driver cost, which accounts for 75% - 80% of the total transaction volume, will be eliminated, and the entire travel market may have about 50% more profit space. [2] - According to the weekly report on the coal mining industry, last week, port coal prices increased significantly. On October 17, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was 748 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 39 yuan/ton), and the pit - mouth coal prices in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased by 50 yuan, 45 yuan, and 46 yuan per ton respectively. [2] - A Morgan Stanley research report shows that Oracle's investor day disclosed three key positive factors, but several core issues remain unanswered, and the market's skeptical attitude may continue. [2] Market Logic The major indices in the two markets opened higher, then rose and fell back, and fluctuated on Monday, with the trading volume shrinking to 1.73 trillion yuan. The net inflow of the ETF market in October reached 99.161 billion yuan, with equity ETFs as the main driving force. Despite short - term market fluctuations, enterprises' profit improvement expectations and policy support effects are clear. Domestic demand sectors may perform well in the short - term, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery are the medium - to - long - term investment mainlines. A - shares are attractively valued for foreign investors. [1][2] 后市展望 The market is still in a defensive state, waiting for the major deal between China and the United States at the end of the month. The coal ETF had a high gain. In September, the industrial added - value data was good. The net inflow of the ETF market in October was significant, and foreign institutions are optimistic about the long - term value of A - shares. Traders are betting on the Fed to cut interest rates. The major indices in the two markets opened higher, then rose and fell back, and fluctuated. Futures multi - positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices. [1][2][3] Trading Strategy - For futures directional trading: The market is in a defensive state, waiting for the clarity of the major deal between China and the United States at the end of the month. Futures multi - positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices. [3] - For index option trading: The market is in a defensive state, so it is advisable to wait and see. [3]
格林大华期货早盘提示-20251021
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-10-21 00:40