供应端政策待明朗，现实供需继续主导新能源金属盘面

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [7] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [8] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, with supply - side policies yet to be clarified, the prices of new energy metals will continue to oscillate. In the long run, there is a strong expectation of supply contraction for silicon, especially polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in an upward phase, and the high - growth supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - Information Analysis: As of September 2025, domestic monthly industrial silicon production was 421,000 tons, a 9.1% month - on - month increase and a 7.3% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative production from January to September was 3.017 million tons, an 18.3% year - on - year decrease. In September, industrial silicon exports were 70,233 tons, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease and a 7.7% year - on - year increase; the cumulative exports from January to September 2025 were 561,000 tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase. The latest domestic inventory was 445,500 tons, a 0.7% month - on - month increase [7] - Main Logic: Supply is increasing in the northwest and is expected to decrease in the southwest during the dry season. Demand has slightly improved, with polysilicon driving consumption up, the organic silicon DMC market stable, and aluminum alloy demand remaining rigid. The supply is generally loose, but coal price fluctuations provide some support, so the price will oscillate in the short term [7] Polysilicon - Information Analysis: The N - type re - feedstock polysilicon transaction price range is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The latest polysilicon warehouse receipt quantity on the GME is 9,150 lots, an increase of 540 lots from the previous value. From January to August 2025, domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 230.61 GW, a 65% year - on - year increase [8] - Main Logic: Production has recovered to over 130,000 tons from August to September and is expected to remain high in October. The demand may weaken in the fourth quarter. The supply - demand situation is under pressure, and the price may reverse if policy expectations fade [8][9][10] Lithium Carbonate - Information Analysis: On October 20, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract remained unchanged at 75,700 yuan/ton, and the total contract positions decreased by 594 to 706,153 lots. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 71,750 yuan/ton [10][11] - Main Logic: The current supply and demand are both strong, but there is an expectation of oversupply after the peak season. Supply is increasing, and demand is strong in the short term. Social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still high. The price will oscillate due to weak price drivers [11] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the categories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate for market monitoring but does not provide specific monitoring content 3. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index was 2,231.41, a 0.06% decrease; the commodity 20 index was 2,533.64, a 0.15% decrease; the industrial products index was 2,183.97, a 0.37% increase [52] - Sector Index: The new energy commodity index on October 20, 2025, was 399.92, with a daily decline of 0.63%, a 5 - day increase of 2.23%, a 1 - month increase of 0.61%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.02% [54]