贵属策略日报：贵?属?位震荡，内盘时段表现偏弱-20251021

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, precious metal prices may enter a shock adjustment phase, and when gold and silver prices fall below the 5 - day moving average, it can be regarded as a reference for phased profit - taking. In the long run, the contraction of the US dollar credit will drive up the value of physical currency, and the price centers of gold and silver will continue to move upward. The long - term bull market of gold has not reversed, and the silver price center is expected to follow the long - term upward trend of gold [1][3]. - The expected trading range for London gold spot this week is [3900, 4400] US dollars per ounce, and for London silver spot, it is [48, 55] US dollars per ounce [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Key Information - The Bank of Japan may slightly raise its economic growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 at its October policy meeting and maintain the view that the economy is moving towards a mild recovery. Bank of Japan official Takada So said it is necessary to further adjust monetary easing policies, the inflation target has basically been achieved, concerns about the impact of tariffs have eased, attention must be paid to the risk of inflation exceeding expectations in Japan, the process of reducing bond purchases must be cautious and time - consuming, the US economy is unlikely to experience a significant recession, and now is the best time to raise interest rates [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order on October 17 (local time), imposing a new 25% tariff on imported medium - and heavy - duty trucks and parts starting from November 1, and will also impose a 10% tariff on imported passenger cars [2]. - White House economic advisor Hassett said that if the government shutdown does not end, the White House will consider taking stronger measures [2]. 2. Price Logic - On Monday during the Asian trading session, precious metals fluctuated. Before the opening of the domestic night session, the prices of gold and silver in the overseas market rose slightly, but immediately fell back after the opening of the domestic night trading session, and the domestic market was weaker than the overseas market. After the price volatility in the overseas and domestic markets significantly increased, both COMEX and domestic exchanges increased margin requirements and issued risk warnings, indicating a further over - heating risk in the market [1][3]. - In the short term, the positive factors are gradually being digested. Positive signals from China - US trade negotiations have reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Non - farm and inflation data are to be released this week, which may end the trading logic of "no news is good news" after the National Day. The silver lease rate has declined from its peak, and the overseas spot situation has been alleviated temporarily [3]. - In the long term, debt over - issuance and anti - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the US dollar credit. Gold, as a currency beyond sovereignty, is still the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks. The trend of global central banks' gold purchases remains unchanged, and the long - term bull market of gold has not reversed. The silver trend is still consistent with that of gold, and the value loosening of credit currency has a spill - over effect on physical currency, so the silver price center is expected to follow the long - term upward trend of gold [3]. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 20, 2025 is presented, including the characteristic index and the sector index. The commodity index is 2231.41, down 0.06%; the commodity 20 index is 2533.64, down 0.15%; the industrial products index is 2183.97, up 0.37%. For the precious metals index on October 20, 2025, the current value is 3394.67, with a daily decline of 3.31%, a 5 - day increase of 2.88%, a 1 - month increase of 16.11%, and a year - to - date increase of 53.44% [43][44][46].