中国期货每日简报-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 20, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell; commodities showed mixed performances, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [9][12] - The industry presents a pattern of "weak current reality + strong future expectations" for live hogs in the fourth quarter, and the cycle is still in a downward phase in the short term, but supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 if production reduction is implemented [17][18][19] - Coking coal fundamentals remain relatively sound, with short - term support on the futures market, but there is a downside risk if important meetings fail to meet expectations [23][24][27] - Silver entered a correction phase, and long - position holders are advised to take profits in stages, while the central level of silver prices is expected to move upward in the long run [31][32] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On October 20, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Commodities showed mixed performances, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [9] - Among China's commodity futures, the top three gainers are live hog (up 2.9% with open interest down 4.1% month - on - month), coking coal (up 2.7% with open interest up 2.0% month - on - month), and apple (up 2.3% with open interest up 11.1% month - on - month). The top three decliners are silver (down 4.0% with open interest down 8.2% month - on - month), poly - silicon (down 3.7% with open interest down 16.7% month - on - month), and glass (down 2.4% with open interest up 4.2% month - on - month) [10][11][12] - Among China's financial futures, equity indices rose, with IC increasing by 0.6%. CGB futures fell, among which TL decreased by 0.4% [12] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Live Hog - On October 20, live hog increased by 2.9% to 12155 yuan/ton. The industry presents a pattern of "weak current reality + strong future expectations" in the fourth quarter [17][20] - In the short term, consumption is in the off - season, monthly slaughter volume increases, and the average weight of live hog remains high. The supply - demand relationship is loose, and the cycle is still in a downward phase. In the long term, if the anti - involution policy to reduce the number of sows by 1 million head is implemented, supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [18][19][20] 1.2.2 Coking Coal - On October 20, coking coal increased by 2.7% to 1216 yuan/ton. Due to frequent coal mine accidents and production inspections, there is limited room for further growth in coal mine production [23][27] - The fundamentals are relatively sound, with short - term support on the futures market, but there is a risk of decline if important meetings fail to meet expectations [24][27] - On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi resumed normal operations, while supply in Inner Mongolia Wuhai is still restricted. Import at Ganqimaodu Port decreased. On the demand side, coke output declined month - on - month, but short - term rigid demand provides support, and overall inventories remain at a low level [25][26][27] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Silver - On October 20, silver decreased by 4.0% to 11742 yuan/kg. Key data disclosure and events such as U.S. non - farm payrolls, inflation, retail data, U.S. government shutdown, and China - U.S. trade negotiations should be focused on [30][32] - With the transfer of silver inventories from New York to London, the spot supply tightness in LBMA has eased. Silver entered a correction phase, and long - position holders are advised to take profits in stages. In the long term, the central level of silver prices is expected to move upward [31][32] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The fourth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee began in Beijing on the morning of October 20 [36][38][39] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 101.5036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. In the third quarter, GDP was 35.4500 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [36][38][39] - In September 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1971 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, it was 36.5877 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.5% [38][39] - In September 2025, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 6.5% year - on - year. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% [38][39] - From January to September 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed asset investment fell by 3.1% year - on - year [38][39] 2.2 Industry News - Starting from the night trading session on October 28, 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the investment scope of Qualified Foreign Investors to LLDPE, PVC, PP Monthly Average Price Futures Contracts [40]