中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨多跌少，贵金属板块调整-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas macro - aspect, the current volatility level is in a low - lying stage, and the "bad news is good news" logic may be nearing its end. The internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated and may rise periodically. In the domestic macro - aspect, the September economic and financial data showed relative resilience, and policy expectations were further strengthened, which may support low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter. - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets. Overseas, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline. In China, policy changes may lead to a rebound in low - valued domestic commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - Stock Index Futures: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4506.8 with a daily increase of 0.48%, the SSE 50 futures at 2970.4 with a daily increase of 0.25%, the CSI 500 futures at 6909.2 with a daily increase of 0.67%, and the CSI 1000 futures at 7059.2 with a daily increase of 1.15%. - Treasury Bond Futures: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.334 with a daily decrease of 0.04%, the 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, the 10 - year at 108.11 with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the 30 - year at 115.3 with a daily decrease of 0.49%. - Foreign Exchange: The central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0973, up 24 pips. - Interest Rates: The 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.82%, down 1.6 bp, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, up 3 bp [4]. 3.2 Popular Industry - Electronics: The index was 11821, with a daily increase of 2.01% and an annual increase of 51.00%. - Power Equipment and New Energy: The index was 11404, with a daily increase of 2.68% and an annual increase of 35.68%. - Consumer Services: The index was 6859, with a daily increase of 0.08% and an annual increase of 7.30% [4]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.25, up 0.53% daily; ICE Brent crude oil at 61.34, up 0.52% daily. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold closed at 4267.9, down 1.76% daily; COMEX silver at 50.625, down 5.25% daily. - Non - ferrous Metals: LME copper closed at 2778.5, down 0.63% daily; LME zinc at 2942.5, down 0.86% daily [4]. 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - Gold: The price was 970.32, down 2.95% daily and up 57.11% annually. - Silver: The price was 11742, up 7.55% daily and up 15.74% annually. - Coke: The price was 2.03% higher daily and 5.36% higher weekly [5]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - Finance: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options are expected to fluctuate; treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September [8]. - Shipping: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - Black Building Materials: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Most base metals are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the clarity of macro - policies [8]. - Energy and Chemicals: Most energy and chemical products are expected to decline or fluctuate, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies [10]. - Agriculture: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with most expected to fluctuate, and some like sugar and pulp expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].