Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean/Protein Meal: In the short - term, the high domestic soybean inventory and the lack of progress in U.S. soybean imports, along with the bean meal de - stocking season, offer some support. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][3]. - Oils and Fats: The current situation shows a balanced or slightly loose supply - demand, but the future is expected to be tight. Before the inventories in sales areas and production areas are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in demand in sales areas, the strategy is to buy on dips in the medium - term [5][7]. - Sugar: Considering the high sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the new season, the general trend is bearish, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - Cotton: Due to the resurgence of Sino - U.S. trade conflicts, weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, low downstream industry operating rates, and the expected domestic bumper harvest, the upward space for cotton prices is limited, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - Eggs: The spot price has a limited rebound expectation due to high supply. The futures market is in a weak bottom - building phase, and it is advisable to wait and see [16][17]. - Pigs: The fundamental situation is oversupply. The short - term spot price rebound is limited, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds for both near - term and far - term contracts [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Protein Meal - Market Information: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to Trump's friendly remarks and strong U.S. domestic spot prices. On Monday, the domestic bean meal spot price was flat, with weak trading but good pick - up. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days last week, port soybean inventory started to decline, and oil mill bean meal inventory continued to decrease. MYSTEEL expects the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume to be 233.35 million tons this week, up from 216.6 million tons last week. As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week, compared with 17.6% last year and a five - year average of 27.7% [2]. - Strategy: Sell on rebounds in the medium - term [3]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3.4%. From October 1 - 15, its production increased by 6.86% month - on - month. As of October 17, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 million tons, up 5.13% week - on - week and 11.59% year - on - year; the national key area soybean oil commercial inventory was 122.4 million tons, down 3.25% week - on - week. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated with no obvious driving force. The international palm oil supply - demand is currently balanced, with a tight expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - Strategy: Buy on dips in the medium - term [7]. Sugar - Market Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5428 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants all decreased by 20 yuan/ton. In the second half of September, Brazil's central - southern region had a 5.1% year - on - year increase in cane crushing volume, a 10.76% increase in sugar production, and a 3.44 - percentage - point increase in the cane - to - sugar ratio. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons [9][10]. - Strategy: Sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - Market Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13465 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Chinese cotton was flat. As of October 17, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, up 0.2% week - on - week but down 7.6 percentage points year - on - year and 10.22 percentage points lower than the five - year average. In September 2025, China imported 10 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2 million tons [13]. - Strategy: The upward space for cotton prices is limited, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price dropped yesterday. The main production area's average price fell to 2.85 yuan/jin. Supply is normal, market sales are slow, and downstream procurement is cautious. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly decline today, with a few areas remaining stable [16]. - Strategy: Wait and see as the futures market is in a weak bottom - building phase [17]. Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price mainly rose yesterday. However, there is a risk that the product price may not follow the increase, and the demand may decrease. The farmers' enthusiasm for selling is low, and some slaughterhouses still have a supply shortage. Today, the pig price may slightly increase with limited gains [19]. - Strategy: Sell on rebounds as the fundamental situation is oversupply [20].
五矿期货农产品早报：农产品早报2025-10-21-20251021
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-21 00:50