Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - valued stocks and rapid rotation. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long run, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the main strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - Recently, Sino - US trade disputes have flared up again, and the short - term decline in risk appetite is conducive to the recovery of the bond market. But the future of tariff progress is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - The Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver, the new Fed chair candidate, has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals [10]. - For most commodities, Sino - US trade frictions and the uncertainty of relevant negotiations have an impact on market sentiment. However, different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends. For the black sector, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][41]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - Market News: The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. CATL's Q3 net profit was 18.5 billion yuan, a 41% year - on - year increase; revenue was 104.19 billion yuan, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. Apple's stock price hit a record high, and iPhone 17 demand was strong. Micron's CBO said the DRAM memory supply situation in 2026 would be more severe [2]. - Strategy: After the previous rise, high - flying sectors face divergence, and short - term index is uncertain. In the long run, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market News: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate - related data showed different trends [5]. - Strategy: Sino - US trade disputes are beneficial to the bond market in the short term, but the future is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may fluctuate, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - Market News: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The market has priced in two consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in October and December. The Fed may end quantitative tightening, and small - bank loan risks have supported precious metal prices [8][9]. - Strategy: Maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals. The reference range for Shanghai gold is 934 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 10937 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market News: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated and rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong changed, and the import loss narrowed [12]. - Strategy: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but sentiment has improved. Copper raw material supply is tight, and prices may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 84800 - 86500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10600 - 10800 dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - Market News: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the market trading atmosphere was light [14]. - Strategy: Sino - US trade tensions have eased, and the price may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20800 - 21100 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2750 - 2800 dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - Market News: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc fell. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed [16]. - Strategy: Domestic zinc ore inventory decreased, and zinc ingot inventory increased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Lead - Market News: Shanghai lead index fell slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed, and domestic social inventory decreased [19]. - Strategy: Lead ore port inventory increased, and downstream demand improved. It is expected to be strong in the short term [19]. Nickel - Market News: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. Spot prices were stable, and nickel ore and nickel - iron prices were also stable. MHP coefficient prices were high [20]. - Strategy: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may have a limited impact. Nickel - iron prices are weak, and inventory pressure is high. In the long run, there is support. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips [20]. Tin - Market News: Shanghai tin prices fell. Supply was tight due to slow tin - mine复产 in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some sectors was weak, but there was marginal improvement in the peak season [21]. - Strategy: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may affect sentiment, but supply - demand is in tight balance, and prices may fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - Market News: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also increased slightly [22]. - Strategy: The downstream of lithium batteries is in the peak season, and supply is less than demand. Pay attention to the supply recovery. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 73800 - 78000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - Market News: The alumina index rose slightly. Spot prices, overseas prices, and inventory changed [24]. - Strategy: Ore prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The smelting capacity is in excess, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Stainless Steel - Market News: Stainless - steel futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changed [26]. - Strategy: The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market News: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices fell. Inventory and trading volume changed [28]. - Strategy: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market News: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed. Futures and spot prices, inventory, and trading volume all had corresponding changes [31]. - Strategy: The overall commodity market was weak. Steel prices may fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term trend is unchanged. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US negotiations [32]. Iron Ore - Market News: Iron - ore futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [33]. - Strategy: Supply has increased, and demand has decreased. Steel - mill profitability has declined, and prices are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market News: Glass prices rose, and soda - ash prices rose slightly. Inventory, trading volume, and basis changed [35][37]. - Strategy: Glass and soda - ash markets are expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market News: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices and basis changed [38]. - Strategy: Sino - US trade frictions and weak demand have pressured prices, but the market may have expectations for future meetings. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector trend, and ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradiction [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market News: Industrial - silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Spot prices, inventory, and basis changed [42][44]. - Strategy: Industrial - silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply may decrease at the end of the month, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market News: Rubber prices fluctuated and recovered. Typhoon Fengshen may affect production areas. Tire - enterprise operating rates changed, and inventory decreased [48][50]. - Strategy: Rubber prices are stable in the short term. It is recommended to go long with a stop - loss and consider a hedging strategy [52]. Crude Oil - Market News: Crude - oil futures prices fell, and refined - oil futures prices changed. Inventory data showed different trends [53]. - Strategy: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and use a range - trading strategy [54]. Methanol - Market News: Methanol prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [55]. - Strategy: Import unloading is delayed, and supply has decreased slightly. Demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - Market News: Urea prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [57]. - Strategy: Short - term production has decreased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long on dips [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market News: Pure - benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [59]. - Strategy: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. Supply is abundant, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices may stop falling [60]. PVC - Market News: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [61]. - Strategy: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to go short on rallies [62]. Ethylene Glycol - Market News: Ethylene - glycol prices were stable. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [63]. - Strategy: Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising. It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. PTA - Market News: PTA prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [65]. - Strategy: Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [66]. p - Xylene - Market News: p - Xylene prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [67]. - Strategy: PX load is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market News: PE prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [70]. - Strategy: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market News: PP prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [72]. - Strategy: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are under pressure [73]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market News: Pig prices mainly rose. There are risks in product sales, and demand may decrease [75]. - Strategy: Supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [76]. Eggs - Market News: Egg prices fell. Supply is normal, and demand is weak [77]. - Strategy: Spot prices may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market News: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean - meal prices were stable, and inventory decreased [79]. - Strategy: Domestic supply pressure is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [82]. Oils and Fats - Market News: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased, and production also increased. Domestic palm - oil and soybean - oil inventories changed [83]. - Strategy: There is support for the price center. It is recommended to buy on dips [84]. Sugar - Market News: Sugar futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices fell. Brazilian production data and Chinese import data were released [85]. - Strategy: It is expected to be bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - Market News: Cotton futures prices rebounded. Spot prices, acquisition prices, and import data all had corresponding changes [88]. - Strategy: Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [89].
文字早评2025/10/21星期二：宏观金融类-20251021
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-21 00:56