黑色建材日报-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short - term, the weak demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to factors such as a decline in steel mill profits, an increase in port inventories, and weak terminal demand. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities rather than shorting. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are affected by supply pressure and follow the commodity environment, with short - term consolidation. Polysilicon prices are in a phased correction within the shock range, with support at 48000 yuan/ton [13][15]. - Glass prices are expected to maintain a weak shock trend due to high inventory and weak demand. Soda ash prices are expected to continue a weak and stable shock operation due to a loose supply - demand pattern [18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3045 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 147,655 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 1,609 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices remained unchanged. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3215 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.343%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,379 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 7,152 lots. The Lechang spot price increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai price remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session is expected to guide the economic development in the next five years. Fundamentally, rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a slight reduction in inventory, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, demand increased after the holiday, but inventory remained high, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to narrow [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 767.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.52% (- 4.00). The open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,600 lots. The weighted open interest was 926,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.24% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded, with increases in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrival volume decreased. - Demand: The average daily hot metal output decreased by 0.59 tons to 240.95 tons. Some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance due to profit decline, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. - Overall: The iron ore price is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On October 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.35% at 5738 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 0.11% at 5436 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 164 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - Current factors such as high hot metal levels and inventory pressure on the plate side are mostly priced in. Macro factors such as important meetings will be more important. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon may be driven by the manganese ore end, and ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8565 yuan/ton, up 1.60% (+ 135). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 14,328 lots to 427,791 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 735 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 50340 yuan/ton, down 3.82% (- 2000). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 23,629 lots to 253,316 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2460 yuan/ton [12][14]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: Supply pressure exists, and it is expected to consolidate in the short - term, following the commodity environment. - Polysilicon: It is in a phased correction within the shock range, with support at 48000 yuan/ton [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton, up 1.59% (+ 18). The North China large - plate price decreased by 30 yuan, and the Central China price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 145.16 million cases (+ 2.31%). - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+ 3). The Shahe heavy - soda price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 4.07 million tons (+ 2.31%) [17][19]. Strategy Views - Glass: Due to high inventory and weak demand, it is expected to maintain a weak shock trend. - Soda ash: Due to a loose supply - demand pattern, it is expected to continue a weak and stable shock operation [18][20].