金信期货日刊-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase in the price of the live hog 2601 contract is essentially the market's early pricing of the future supply - demand repair, a game between the long - term inflection point expectation and the short - term fundamentals. It is not advisable to chase the high, and it should be treated as a short - term long position. For other commodities, different trading suggestions are given based on their respective fundamentals and technical aspects [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Live Hogs - The live hog 2601 contract price increase is due to the market's early pricing of future supply - demand repair. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" pattern, and the 2601 contract becomes the focus of capital game [3] - The upward momentum comes from three aspects: capacity reduction expectation (the elimination rate of retail investors has risen to 8% in September), policy support signals (central reserve purchases), and seasonal logic (anticipation of the consumption peak season before the Spring Festival in 2026) [3] - Short - term pressure exists as the current live hog inventory is 440 million, the proportion of large - weight hogs has reached a new high this year, the spot average price is only 10.72 yuan/kg, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The technical side is still dominated by bears [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened higher and went higher on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a negative doji star. It is expected to continue high - level oscillations tomorrow [7][8] Technical Analysis - Gold - The external gold market has significantly adjusted, and Shanghai gold followed with a negative close. The volatility has increased. It is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term, and it is better to buy on dips [12] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron production may decline periodically. Technically, if it breaks below the important support again, a large - scale adjustment may be triggered [15] - There are short - term supply disruptions due to long - term agreement negotiations and accidents, but in the long run, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [16] Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The future driving factors mainly depend on policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] - Technically, it has continuously declined and broken below important support, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [19] Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and the egg supply is relatively sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. However, according to the current price and cost, each laying hen is expected to lose 16.90 yuan in the future. There are short - term long - position opportunities [23] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The domestic port inventory remains high. The pulp market is expected to remain weak and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [26]