Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On October 20, 2025, the A-share market showed a general upward trend, but the trading volume decreased. Different futures varieties had different price trends, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international market conditions [1] - Most futures varieties are currently in a state of complex supply - demand relationships, with short - term trends being mainly volatile, and different varieties have different influencing factors and future focus points [5][8] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On October 20, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% to 3863.89 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98% to 12813.21 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98% to 2993.45 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1737.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 200.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index rebounded and consolidated, closing at 4538.22, a rise of 23.99 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On October 20, the coke weighted index fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1735.3, a rise of 28.9; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1229.0 yuan, a rise of 29.5 [3][4] - The supply of coking coal increased, but production was restricted by over - production inspections. The strong thermal coal market supported the price of coking coal. Coke production decreased with the decline of hot metal, and factors such as shrinking steel mill profits and inventory accumulation restricted the rise of coking coal prices. In the short term, the upward driving force of double - coking was insufficient [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Although the US sugar fell last Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract did not follow. Affected by the decrease in imports in September, short - covering pushed the futures price to close slightly higher. Supported by bargain - hunting, the contract also rose slightly at night [5] Rubber - On October 20, Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly, with natural rubber being strong and 20 - number rubber being weak. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. Trump signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported trucks and parts from November 1 [6] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 20, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated and closed higher. As of October 17, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans had reached 23.27% of the expected total area, compared with 9.33% in the same period last year. Domestically, on October 20, soybean meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the M2601 contract closing at 2895 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.94%. In the short term, soybean meal lacked upward driving force and was expected to fluctuate [6][8] Live Pigs - On October 20, live pig futures rebounded from the bottom, with the LH2601 contract closing at 12155 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.16%. In the short term, the live pig market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the rebound space might be limited [8] Palm Oil - On October 20, palm oil futures prices fluctuated slightly within the range. The main contract P2601 closed with a small negative line with an upper shadow. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared with the same period last month [8] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper was strong. The contraction of global copper mine supply, continuous maintenance of domestic smelters, and the Fed's loose policy provided support for copper prices. The 86000 yuan/ton integer mark was a key pressure level [9] Cotton - On the night of October 20, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13480 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 55 lots compared with the previous trading day. The price of machine - picked cotton increased on average, and the machine - picking progress in Xinjiang was more than half [9] Logs - On October 20, the 2511 log contract opened at 802, with the lowest at 798.5, the highest at 806.5, and closed at 802.5, with a reduction of 503 lots. The futures price rebounded near the 800 mark, and attention should be paid to the support of the spot price and the pressure of the 807 moving average [9] Iron Ore - On October 20, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.58% and a closing price of 767 yuan. The iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly, the domestic arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. In the short term, the iron ore price was in a volatile trend [10] Asphalt - On October 20, the main contract of asphalt 2601 fluctuated and closed up, with a rise of 0.13% and a closing price of 3141 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the shipment volume rebounded month - on - month. In the short term, the asphalt price was expected to fluctuate [10] Steel - On October 20, rb2601 was reported at 3045 yuan/ton, and hc2601 was reported at 3215 yuan/ton. The domestic steel demand was weak, and the supply - demand situation was weak. The raw fuel market was divided, and the steel price was expected to fluctuate in the short term [11][13] Alumina - On October 20, ao2601 was reported at 2806 yuan/ton. The supply of imported alumina ore was stable, and the inventory was high. The industry's operating capacity was at a high level. Before the emergence of a clear production - reduction signal, the market was in a weak rebound pattern with limited space [13] Shanghai Aluminum - On October 20, al2511 was reported at 20910 yuan/ton. The overseas and domestic macro signals were generally neutral and slightly improved. The macro - level provided mild support for the non - ferrous sector, but Sino - US relations might still cause disturbances [14]
国新国证期货早报-20251021
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-10-21 01:19