Report Information - Release Date: October 21, 2025 [3] Market Trends International Futures - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 3.82% at $4374.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.59% at $51.40 per ounce. Factors include US government shutdown, Fed rate - cut expectations, EU energy policy shift, central bank gold - buying, and Sino - US trade friction [4]. - US crude oil futures' main contract fell 0.38% to $56.93 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures' main contract dropped 0.57% to $60.94 per barrel. Rising global production, slowing economic growth, and reduced geopolitical risks pressured oil prices [4]. - Most London base metals rose. LME zinc, lead, copper, tin, and nickel increased, while LME aluminum declined. The Fed's signal of a possible slowdown in rate hikes and a weaker US dollar drove the price increase [4]. Domestic Futures - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai gold rose over 2%, and Shanghai silver rose over 1%. Some commodities like soybeans and pulp had small increases, while coking coal and soda ash dropped over 2%, and others like glass and coke fell over 1% [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively [8]. - China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with an economic increment of 3967.9 billion yuan, 136.8 billion yuan more than the previous year [8]. - As of October 9, 2025, China's futures market capital exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching about 2.02 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [8]. - As of October 20, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5% from the previous period [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028 [11]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the urea futures business rules, adding large - granular urea as an alternative delivery product [13]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the scope of tradable products for qualified overseas investors, including linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures, starting from the night session on October 28, 2025 [13]. - As of October 20, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.7107 million tons, up 0.60% from the previous week [13]. Metal Futures - The global lithium demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 20% to 4 million tons by 2030, driven by battery demand [15]. - Some polysilicon production bases in Southwest China will gradually reduce raw material input and stop production by the end of October - early November, with an affected capacity of about 320,000 tons per year [15]. - Global primary aluminum production in September 2025 was 6.08 million tons. China's estimated production was 3.644 million tons [15]. - China's tin concentrate imports in September 2025 were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month but up 10.68% year - on - year [16]. Black - Series Futures - From October 13 - 19, 2025, global iron ore shipments were 33.335 million tons, up 1.26 million tons from the previous week [19]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, down 4.6% year - on - year; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, down 2.4% year - on - year; and steel production was 124.21 million tons, up 5.1% year - on - year [19]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on cement industry stability, emphasizing capacity replacement and standardization [19]. - From now until October 23, 2025, Tangshan's section steel mills will implement production control, with an expected开工率 of 33% and a daily output reduction of about 50,000 tons [20]. - HeSteel Group set the final price of silicomanganese in October at 5820 yuan per ton [21]. - Coal mines in Shuozhou's Shanyin County stopped production on October 20, 2025, with a total capacity of 34 million tons, and are expected to resume on October 24 [22]. Agricultural Futures - In the first three quarters, China's pig slaughter was 529.92 million heads, up 1.8% year - on - year, and pork production was 43.68 million tons, up 3.0% year - on - year [25]. - As of the week of October 17, domestic major soybean oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.17 million tons, and it is expected to rise to about 2.3 million tons this week [25]. - As of October 17, 2025, palm oil commercial inventory in key regions increased by 5.13% week - on - week, while soybean oil commercial inventory decreased by 3.25% week - on - week [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month [26]. - China did not import soybeans from the US in September 2025 and is increasing purchases from South American countries [26]. - As of October 15, the national pig ex - factory price was 11.90 yuan per kilogram, down 6.08% from October 8 [26]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 24%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn in the central - southern region reached 51% of the planned area [26]. - As of October 20, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.96254 million tons, up 314,570 tons from the previous week [28]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending October 16, 2025, were 1.474354 million tons [28]. - As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7% [29]. Financial Markets Financial - On Monday, A - shares oscillated with reduced trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%. Market turnover decreased to 1.75 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.42%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.45%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of HK$2.67 billion [31]. - There are rumors that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges may select a CSI A500ETF as an option underlying asset [31]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the implementation of the cement industry's stability plan, including no new capacity, standardizing existing capacity, and eliminating backward capacity [32]. - In the first three quarters, the land transfer fees of 300 cities' residential land increased by 12% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 8%. In the third quarter, the land market cooled [32]. - Shanghai's eighth batch of centralized land auctions had a total transaction amount of 19.877 billion yuan, with a record - high floor price in the Xuhui Riverside area [32]. - The 2025 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference proposed to increase China's annual new wind power installation capacity during the 15th Five - Year Plan period and set long - term installation goals [32]. - As of the end of September, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure reached 18.063 million units, a 54.5% year - on - year increase [33]. - In September, China's industrial raw coal production decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, while crude oil and natural gas production increased. Crude steel and pig iron production reached new lows since December 2023 [33]. Overseas - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in the next 6 months and build a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [35]. - Trump claimed that Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil, and threatened to impose "huge" tariffs if India does not fulfill the promise [35]. - The White House's economic advisor said the government shutdown may end this week, and stronger measures may be taken if not [35]. - Argentina's central bank signed a $20 - billion swap agreement with the US Treasury [36]. - The Bank of Korea's governor said the bank has not considered a currency swap with the US Treasury [37]. - The EU supports phasing out Russian natural gas imports by January 2028 [37]. - A hawkish member of the Bank of Japan warned of price - rising risks and said the central bank may raise the benchmark interest rate. The BOJ may slightly raise the 2025 fiscal year's economic growth forecast [37]. - Vietnam's government set a GDP growth target of at least 10% in 2026 and expects an 8% growth this year [38]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, driven by Apple's record - high price, hopes of ending the government shutdown, and strong iPhone 17 sales [40]. - European stocks also closed higher, benefiting from better - than - expected Chinese economic data, expectations of Sino - US trade talks, improved corporate earnings, and reduced risk aversion [40]. - Japan's stock market rose strongly after the increased possibility of Takamichi Sanae becoming the prime minister. South Korea's stock market also reached a new high [40]. - Vietnam's stock market tumbled due to reports of corporate bond issuance irregularities in the banking and real - estate sectors [41]. Commodities - On October 9, 2025, China's futures market capital exceeded 2 trillion yuan [42]. - Linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures will be listed on October 28, 2025, and are open to qualified overseas investors [44]. Bonds - A - share rebound and progress in Sino - US talks led to rising yields in the inter - bank bond market and falling bond futures prices in China. The central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and had a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [46]. - US Treasury yields fell across the board, driven by increased risk aversion and expectations of Fed rate cuts [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1231 on Monday, up 34 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.0973, down 24 basis points [48]. - The CFETS RMB exchange - rate index and other RMB exchange - rate indices declined in the week of October 17 [48]. - The Reserve Bank of India is taking measures to promote the use of the rupee in trade settlements [48]. - The US dollar index rose 0.07% at the New York close. Most non - US currencies fell, while the Australian dollar and offshore RMB rose [48]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 91 billion yuan of reverse repurchases by the People's Bank of China will mature [50]. - At 12:20, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will give a speech [50]. - At 15:00, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane and President Christine Lagarde will give speeches [50]. - At 21:00, the Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation meeting, with Governor Christopher Waller giving the opening speech [50]. - At 21:30, European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann will give a speech [50]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is being held from October 20 - 23 [50]. - The APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting is being held until October 22 [50]. - Japan will hold a prime - minister nomination election [50]. - US President Trump will announce major tariff measures against Colombia [50]. - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will hold a regional investment summit [50]. - Jushuitan will be officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [50]. - China Telecom, Netflix, Coca - Cola, and General Motors will release their financial reports [50]. - At 03:30 the next day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give the closing speech at the Fed's payment innovation meeting [50]. - At 06:00 the next day, German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will give a speech [50].
冠通期货资讯早间报-20251021
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-21 01:19